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!“Oh meu Deus! Oh meu Deus!Vou chegar tarde!”

Coelho Branco

Alice no País das Maravilhas

http://www.triplov.com/contos/Alice-no-pais-das-maravilhas/index.htm

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XV) Landscape and precipitation in the eastern Amazon Basin II

David FitzjarraldAtmospheric Sciences Research Center

University at Albany, SUNYUS of A

With modeling: Julia Cohen, Universidade Federal de Pará, BrasilSurface network: Ricardo Sakai, Matthew Czikowsky, ASRC, UAlbany

Osvaldo Moraes, Otávio Acevedo, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, BrasilRodrigo da Silva, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Brasil

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Explain all that,' said the Mock Turtle.

`No, no! The adventures first,' said the Gryphon in an impatient tone: `explanations take such a dreadful time.'

Chapter 10, “the Lobster Quadrille” Alice in Wonderland

Grifo

“Explique o que quer dizer”, dissea Tartaruga Falsa.

“Não, não! As aventuras primeiro,disse o Grifo num ton impaciente.“Explicações levam um tempo danado.”

Tartaruga Falsa

Modelagem!

Observaciones!

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“Well! I've often seen a cat without a grin,” thought Alice;but a grin without a cat! It's the most curious thing I eversaw in my life!”

“Bem! Já vi muitas vezes um gato sem sorriso”, pensouAlice, “mas um sorriso sem gato! É da coisa mais curiosaque já vi em toda minha vida.”

Gato desde Cheshire Sensoriamento remoto!

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Liebman and Allured (BAMS 2005). Daily gridded data made from this station data base. How processed do you want your “data”?

Liebman and Allured (2005)

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Notes on the Rivers Arinos, Juruena, and Tapajos W. Chandless

Journal of the Royal Geographical Society of London, Vol. 32 (1862), pp. 268-280

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Recent Explorations in the Valley of the Amazonas, with MapChas. Fred. HarttJournal of the American Geographical Society of New York, Vol. 3. (1872), pp. 231-252.

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Average GOES low cloudiness May 2001

Known bias in clouds from the river breeze effect.

What kind of rainfall bias is there?

Molion and Dallarosa (≈1980’s)River breeze.

Detected breeze at Manaus back in 1985, 1987(ABLE-2). Oliveira & Fitzjarrald (1990 ab);

(LBA, CIRSAN, Santarém) STM breezeSilva Dias et al. (2001)Lu et al. (2005)

Confluence of the Amazon and Tapajós rivers. 15-20 km wide

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“Era uma vez ….”

D’Almeida et al. (2007)

Brisa vegetal

Brisa fluvial

Seeking mechanisms…

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Does it matter that many long-term climate stations are all along the rivers?

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00-03 UTC

00-03 UTC

06-09 UTC06-09

UTC 12-15 UTC

12-15 UTC

18-21 UTC

18-21 UTC

(From Kousky et al. 2006, CMORPH analyses)

Influence of large scale ‘instability lines’ on precipitationat STM: provides a nocturnal rainfall maximum? Where?

Time of ‘maximum precipitation rate’

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Measuring convective precipitation in the Amazon (anywhere?) is still a challenge.

Tools:

• Conventional rain gauge network: daily totals, some stations with hourly data(Hidro, INMET)

• LBA-ECO special observations

• CMORPH remotely sensed rainfall (Joyce et al.) Passive microwave, CMORPH uses IR only as a transport vehicle, i.e. IR data are NOT used to make estimates of rainfall when passive microwave data are not available.

• BRAMS model

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Molion and Dallarosa (1988)—hypothesize that river breeze suppresses rain at a, b, d, e, f ….

Annual precipitation totals (m)g = Belterra

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Fordlandia and Belterra, Rubber Plantations on the Tapajos River, BrazilJoseph A. RussellEconomic Geography, Vol. 18, No. 2. (Apr., 1942), pp. 125-145.

Fordlândia Belterra1929

1933

1931

1929

1937

EÑEÑ

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1998:(Não, não! As aventuras primeiro, disse o Grifo num ton impaciente.)

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Original Belterra LBA station km117 station

Installed July 1998

LBA-ECO weather stations

With Jorge de Melo

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Historical rainfall records in this region—not continuous

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One way to improve rain gauge statistics (at least at 1 point).

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FLONA Tapajós wedge gauges--substantial overestimation relative to tipping buckets… ?????

Wedge gauges

Tipp

ing

buck

et

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Daily totals

Monthly totals

Belterra station taken as the intercomparison point: TB & conventional measurements

Find the daily averaged rainfall and then scale up to months, seasons.

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1. Need to know what kind of rainfall is occurring & how much.

2. Astronauts are useful!

Which station is ‘representative’?

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More extreme events very near the Amazon channel…

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Gridded (Liebman) rainfall totals looks like that seen along the river, but there is less rainfall inland--where is the ‘breeze suppression’?

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convective synoptic

Rain Dial (UT)

Rain Dial: Afternoon precipitation: local convective activityNocturnal rainfall: instability line rainfall

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We found the CMORPH rainfall wasn’t too bad in the Amazon

CMORPH: 213 mm

Gauges: 185 mm

CMORPH

Czikowsky et al. (2010)

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Gradients in mean total annual rainfall—more rain to the W of the confluence

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Squall Lines : 2000 to 2006

CCL: Costal Convective Line ( Propagation < 170 km) SL1: Squall Line Type 1 ( 170 Km <Propagation < 400 km)

SL2: Squall Line Type 2 ( Propagation > 400 km) SL2 – STM – Moved around Santarem

Cohen(2009)

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2003-2006 CMORPH0.25° resolution

Cohen (2011)

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• BRAMS = Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003). [simulations performed by Prof. Júlia Cohen, UFPa, Brasil

• The model’s initialization was variable, each 6 hours, with the analysis of CPTEC’s global model, the radiosondes and the available surface data.

• The integration period was 36 hours, initiating on June, 02, 2006, at 12 UTC.

• surface vegetation, radiation, cloud microphysics modules.

• Grell’s deep convective parameterization and shallow convection parameterization.

• Control and Topography Experiments now. In future, examine role of background flow on river breeze convergence & local rainfall

Júlia Cohen model runs.

‘Explain all that,' said the Mock Turtle.

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3 Grids • Points X = 82,113,140 • Points Y = 60,89,113 • Points Z = 27,27,27 • Points in soil = 8

Grid increments ( 72 , 24, 8 km) River and Topography (m)

Grid 2

Grid 3

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Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) with Topography

Climatology : Total rain since costal to STMS

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Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) with Topography

Climatology : Total rain since costal to STMS

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Hints of convergence after squall passage at Vila Franca

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Left to do:Large land use change boundaries sharp, but ‘vegetation breeze’ is subordinate to the river breeze. Or, is there any veggie breeze?

Does such a breeze still occur on days following rain? ??? () think so!

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6777

6777

Sodar at km 77 Tethered balloon

Wind speed

PAR

T

Old Growth Site (67) / Pasture site (77) comparison

Long-term average Sdw(km67)≈0.95 Sdw(km77)

Hard to find the driving temperature difference for a vegetation breeze…

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Not just total rainfall, not just rainfall types, but also ‘irrigation frequency’

Fitzjarrald et al. (2008)

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continuing work Grid 4

look at how the breeze circulations may enhance rainfall inland (daytime)

& how convergence over the river confluence may do so (night).

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continuing work: remote sensing CloudSat (how does one use thin slices of information?

Seek composities to identify cross-river extent of breeze.afternoon pass (blue) to get composites of breeze circulation cloud structureovernight pass (red) to cross the squall lines obliquely

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continuing collaboration: SIPAM Doppler radar

andreviving the (now) UFOPa rain gauge network around STM, especially to the N of the Amazon River

• Preliminary radar climatology (UFPa Cohen group & SIPAM)• confirms the rainfall maximum near Vila Franca

• Estimativa de Precipitação Acumulada Mensal (mm) • 00 a 12Z e 12 a 24Z

• Marshall-Palmer (pcpm)• Rosenfeld(pcpr)• Fulton (pcpf)

Março

Agosto

Dezembro

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Conclusions

• Observed: Near-river stations do indeed miss the afternoon convective rain as would be expected if a river breeze influence dominates.

• Observed: This deficiency is more than compensated by additional nocturnal rainfall. This effect is local; for areas only a few kilometers inland from the rivers, nocturnal squall lines contribute less than half of total precipitation.

• Still hypothesis: Breeze circulations associated with the Amazon River (with a wind component approximately normal to the mean flow) affect rainfall more than does the Tapajós breeze (which approximately opposes the prevailing wind).

• Observed/Modeled: Even subtle topography modulates squall lines and enhances rainfall.

Describing the proper mixture of precipitation types should be a concern for those assessing model sensitivity, especially since the reanalysis rainfall data are believed to be flawed.

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Some remaining research questions

• What mechanism explains how mesoscale circulations, related to the large lake-like expanse of water at the confluence responsible for the nocturnal precipitation preference?

• As squall lines approach this region, does enhanced moist inflow augmented by southerly channeling up the Tapajós and easterly channeling along the Amazon fuel the storm as it approaches?

• On normal afternoons, how far inland must one go to get the precipitation ‘representative’ of the region?

° What is the role of topography in enhancing rainfall, especially N of the Amazon river?

Fitzjarrald, D. R., R. K. Sakai, O. L. L. Moraes, R. Cosme de Oliveira, O. C. Acevedo, M. J. Czikowsky, and T. Beldini (2008), Spatial and temporal rainfall variability near the Amazon-Tapajós confluence, J. Geophys. Res., 113, G00B11, doi:10.1029/2007JG000596, [printed 114(G1), 2009].

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“Who cares for you?” said Alice, (she had grown to her fullsize by this time.) “You're nothing but a pack of cards!”

“Quem se importa com vocês?”, disse Alice (ela tinha chegado aseu tamanho normal a esa altura). “Voces não passam de umbaralho de cartas!”

An old guy ends up out of touch with the new‘death of causality’ science --- ’data-model-RS fusion’‘data assimilation’

How can you win or lose?

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Obrigado!

Leonzinho e o “Triple Big Ear”

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60Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) with Topography

61Total rain (12 UTC on 2 June to 00 UTC June 4) without Topography

62Topografia minus no Topografia

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