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Lu ��U��}@?�
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*itt #i�i*LTi_ �L�?|h�itc� �4ih�U@? ,UL?L4�U +i��i�c Dbc ��H�eH�
d�So @?tMii!c A� E2ff��c �B�� ,t|�4@|�L? �? �@?i* #@|@ �L_i*t ��|� �i@t�hi�
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d�.o `O� E�bbb�c ��@*@h�@ �bH2��bb.c� ii!*) ,T�_i4�L*L}�U@* +iULh_c �� ��}�t|
�bbbc 2SD�2.f�
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d�bo Lh*_ Oi@*|� 5|@|�t|�Ut �??�@*c �bH�c .b��.bD�
�S
32
Table1: Descriptive statistics: Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. ----------------------------------------------- tropical | 4725 .6962963 .4599049 CW | 4725 .1456085 .3527506 malaria | 3320 173339.9 653838.2 REF | 4725 47937.17 247356.9 MCID | 3920 .5989092 .4206092 hospitals | 744 3.046868 2.896242 PHYS | 1122 .7477291 .9565076 RURAL | 4520 0.603536 0.237456 DR | 4725 .0916402 .2885479 africa | 4725 .3851852 .4866905 REF2 | 4725 43128.07 241944.9
REF1 | 4725 23952.93 104365.5 REF3 | 4725 19470.86 91359.84 IPHYS | 4482 .5494288 .7643114 Gdp pc | 3568 2718.874 4619.588 IRRIG | 3901 1395198 5688199
33
Table 2A: Regression results: All refugees (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.055
(1.37) 0.189 (2.34)
0.052 (1.23)
0.023 (0.51)
0.019 (0.44)
0.016 (0.36)
RURAL -100.91 (-7.31)
-224.33 (-3.72)
-142.86 (-8.84)
-144.09 (-8.25)
-146.21 (-8.34)
-162.25 (-8.65)
PHYS -202.49 (-2.55)
IPHYS -258.24 (-4.96)
-317.40 (-5.43)
-317.67 (-5.43)
-321.33 (-5.25)
IRRIG 0.040 (4.19)
0.040 (4.27)
0.038 (3.94)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes*
N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 2B: Regression results: All Refugees (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.887
(6.71) 1.448 (7.18)
0.865 (6.52)
0.871 (6.06)
0.875 (6.08)
0.865 (5.90)
RURAL -123.45 (-7.18)
-121.54 (-3.35)
-156.13 (-7.83)
-161.03 (-7.39)
-163.22 (-7.46)
-175.58 (-7.58)
PHYS -142.53 (-1.41)
IPHYS -233.43 (-3.28)
-249.08 (-3.06)
-246.79 (-3.03)
-265.29 (-3.15)
IRRIG 0.004 (0.08)
-0.003 (-0.06)
-0.008 (-0.15)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
34
Table3A: Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.042
(-0.97) -0.045 (-0.57)
-0.045 (-1.04)
-0.071 (-1.53)
-0.076 (-1.63)
-0.078 (-1.63)
REF1 1.176 (8.03)
2.354 (9.48)
1.147 (7.82)
1.146 (7.34)
1.159 (7.41)
1.146 (7.15)
RURAL -87.56 -83.26 (-2.87)
-127.06 (-7.88)
-128.12 (-7.35)
-130.67 (-7.47)
-145.64 (-7.77)
PHYS -168.19 (-2.25)
IPHYS -241.25 (-4.68)
-297.26 (-5.12)
297.15 (-5.12)
-299.93 (-4.94)
IRRIG 0.038 (4.09)
0.039 (4.17)
0.037 (3.86)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes*
N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 3B: : Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.071
(-0.29) -0.052 (-0.16)
-0.069 (-0.28)
-0.067 (-0.26)
-0.058 (-0.22)
-0.060 (-0.22)
REF1 1.334 (4.57)
2.372 (5.82)
1.303 (4.46)
1.317 (4.20)
1.312 (4.18)
1.299 (4.06)
RURAL -117.80 (-6.87)
-101.31 (-2.88)
-149.17 (-7.53)
-153.65 (-7.06)
-155.85 (-7.13)
-168.00 (-7.26)
PHYS -115.20 (-1.17)
IPHYS -223.11 (-3.15)
-236.32 (-2.91)
-234.11 (-2.89)
-249.94 (-2.97)
IRRIG 0.004 (0.07)
-0.003 (-0.06)
-0.008 (-0.14)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes
N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
35
Table 4A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.212
(-1.05) -0.151 (-0.56)
-0.229 (-1.14)
-0.255 (-1.20)
-0.255 (-1.19)
-0.264 (-1.21)
REF2 0.279 (1.37)
0.368 (1.31)
0.290 (1.43)
0.287 (1.34)
0.283 (1.32)
0.289 (1.32)
RURAL -101.03 (-7.32)
-113.65 (-3.70)
-143.12 (-8.86)
-144.36 (-8.27)
-146.43 (-8.35)
-162.52 (-8.66)
PHYS -202.92 (-2.56)
IPHYS -259.07 (-4.98)
-318.23 (-5.44)
-318.51 (-5.44)
-322.10 (-5.26)
IRRIG 0.039 (4.18)
0.040 (4.25)
0.038 (3.92)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes* N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 4B: : Regression results: Refugees from civil war (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.182
(0.82) 0.192 (0.72)
0.158 (0.71)
0.157 (0.66)
0.156 (0.65)
0.150 (0.61)
REF2 0.938 (3.89)
2.283 (6.68)
0.940 (3.90)
0.954 (3.68)
0.960 (3.71)
0.955 (3.62)
RURAL -120.74 (-7.04)
-102.83 (-2.96)
-153.54 (-7.77)
-158.30 (-7.28)
-160.46 (-7.35)
-172.55 (-7.47)
PHYS -150.17 (-1.55)
IPHYS -234.48 (-3.31)
-250.12 (-3.08)
-247.84 (-3.05)
-266.23 (-3.17)
IRRIG 0.004 (0.08)
-0.003 (-0.07)
-0.008 (-0.16)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes
N 2294 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
36
Table5A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.034
(-0.80) -0.015 (-0.21)
-0.038 (-0.88)
-0.063 (-1.38)
-0.068 (-1.48)
-0.070 (-1.49)
REF3 1.408 (9.33)
2.997 (11.52)
1.378 (9.12)
1.382 (8.59)
1.391 (8.64)
1.378 (8.35)
RURAL -86.46 (-6.31)
-74.31 (-2.63)
-125.44 (-7.81)
-126.41 (-7.28)
-128.91 (-7.40)
-143.69 (-7.70)
PHYS -144.59 (-1.99)
IPHYS -238.24 (-4.64)
-293.46 (-5.08)
-293.60 (-5.08)
-296.14 (-4.90)
IRRIG 0.038 (4.04)
0.039 (4.14)
0.037 (3.83)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes*
N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table5B: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.113
(0.63) 0.182 (0.77)
0.104 (0.58)
0.106 (0.55)
0.105 (0.55)
0.101 (0.51)
REF3 1.408 (6.29)
2.888 (8.59)
1.387 (6.18)
1.410 (5.84)
1.417 (5.86)
1.406 (5.71)
RURAL -116.12 (-6.80)
-90.30 (-2.66)
-147.08 (-7.46)
-151.26 (-6.98)
-153.32 (-7.04)
-165.12 (-7.17)
PHYS -99.92 (-1.06)
IPHYS -220.32 (-3.12)
-234.43 (-2.90)
-232.15 (-2.87)
-248.22 (-2.97)
IRRIG 0.006 (0.11)
-0.002 (-0.04)
-0.007 (-0.13)
DR Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
MCID Yes
N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics
37
Table 6: Analysis of Robustness. Dependent variable: Incidence of Malaria Model All countries Only tropical
countries Without Africa, China, India
REF 0.111 (0.50)
0.218 (0.89)
0.262 (0.50)
REF3 1.414 (8.29)
1.623 (4.48)
0.340 (4.03)
REF2 -0.189 (-0.84)
-0.314 (-0.81)
-0.055 (-1.05)
RURAL -143.01 (-7.66)
-164.51 (-7.14)
6.23 (-1.65)
IPHYS -294.96 (-4.87)
-245.28 (-2.93)
9.38 (1.02)
IRRIG 0.037 (3.83)
-0.006 (-0.12)
0.025 (5.85)
DR Yes
Yes
Yes
CW Yes
Yes
Yes*
MCID Yes*
Yes Yes
N 2722 1919 1643 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant
Figure 1. Cases of malaria and civil wars.Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999) and Doyle and Sambanis (2000).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
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1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Civ
il w
ars
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
Cas
es o
f m
alar
ia
Number of civil wars Total Without India and China
Figura 2: Number of African countries reporting and number of cases.Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
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1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
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1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
Number of reporting countries Cases without China and India
Figure 3. Refugees and cases of malaria.Sources: UNHCR and Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
1962
1963
1964
1965
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1967
1968
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1970
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1977
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1980
1981
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1983
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Inte
rpo
late
d n
um
ber
of
case
s (w
ith
ou
t C
hin
a an
d In
dia
)
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Ref
ug
ees
Cases of malaria Refugees