ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS OF EPAC’S IN BRAZIL · 2020. 8. 25. · OF EPAC’S IN BRAZIL Velo-city...
Transcript of ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS OF EPAC’S IN BRAZIL · 2020. 8. 25. · OF EPAC’S IN BRAZIL Velo-city...
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ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS
OF EPAC’S IN BRAZIL
Velo-city Dublin
June 2019
Daniel Guth
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Motorized vehicles in Brazil: 100.094.725(Denatran, 2018)
Investments + financing
Insurance Fuel
Maintenance Parking Toll
Traffic Jam/ loss of
production
Average cost of na automobile in São Paulo: R$ 12.830,00/month
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Recife
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Rio de Janeiro
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São Paulo
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Cars vs. Pedelecs
Each R$ 1 (1l gas = R$ 4,20)2 km
Each R$ 1
100 km
0km
150km
75km
VS
(1l gas = R$ 4,20)
Pedelecs are
53 timesm o r e E F F I C I E N T
t h a n cars.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
0km
75km
150km
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EPAC Strategy
Market data,
economic studies
and research
Legislation & regulation
EPAC use
campaigning
EPAC Parliamentary
front (national
level), w/ 12
member of
Congress
Working group for
EPAC market
development since 2017
90 companies and
associations affiliated -15 EPAC industries
National
campaign for
lower EPAC taxes
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2007-2016
National BicycleProduction
PIA/IBGE (2016)
TOTAL BICYCLES (HS 8712) IMPORTS IN BRAZIL
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What about EPAC’s?
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May 2009 - Resolution 315
classified all “EPACs" as
mopeds, without making any
distinction. Limiting to the
maximum weight of 140 kg
and maximum speed of
50km/h.
November 2013 - Resolution 465
establishes the correct
distinction for EPAC’s, setting up
new criteria and equating
EPAC’s to to human propeled
bicycles regarding all traffic
rules.
- Engine power up to 350 watts
- Pedal assisted up to 25 km/h
- Lights, helmet obligation
- No acceleration
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BRAZILIAN EPAC MARKET
EPAC sales represented a
market share of 0,30% in 2016
and 0,70% in 2018.
Sales of electric bicycles
have shown a
compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of
around 19% since 2010
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Fonte: CONEBI (Países Europeus), IBGE (Brasil), Presto (EUA) e FMI. Elaborado por Sidera Consult.
EPAC SALES/THOUSAND INHABITANTS | 2016
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EPAC’s: BICYCLE RETAILERS| 2018
3 (2%)
5 (3%)
7 (4%)
21 (11%)
25 (13%)
49 (25%)
85 (44%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Falta de regulamentação
Não acredita ou não confia no produto
Falta de técnicos/mecânicos
Falta de mercado/demanda
Porque ainda não encontrei fornecedores
Porque este segmento não me interessa
Porque são muito caras para meu públicoatendido
Why are you not selling EPAC’s yet? (main reason)
20%
80%
Percentage of bike shops selling EPAC’sin Brazil
Comercializa bicicletas elétricasNão comercializa
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US$ EU USA Japão BrasilBE BC BE BC BE BC BE BC
II (%) 8.00 14
.0
0
0.00 11
.0
0
0.00 0.
00
20.00 35.00
Imposto nacional (%) 15.00 15
.0
0
6,51 6,
51
8.00 8.
00
IPI% 35
PIS% 2,1
COFINS%
9,65
ICMS%
18,00
IPI% 10
PIS% 2,1
COFINS% 9,65
ICMS%
18,00
Total 1,242 1,
31
1
1,065.1 1,
18
2.
15
1,080 1,
08
0
1,977 1,886.62
EPAC TAXES
For the hypothesis below, we compared an exemplary price for the two types of
bicycle ("BE" - electric and "BC" - conventional) assuming it to be $1,000:
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58%19%
23%
Sim Não sabe Não
Do you intend to sell EPAC’s over the next years?
EPAC’S cost for consumers:• Most expensive: R$ 37.000,00 • Cheapest: R$ 2.500,00• Average cost: R$ 4.000,00
61%25%
10%
2% 2%
EPAC’S sold, per type
Urbana MTB Dobrável Cargueira Infantil
EPAC’s: BICYCLE RETAILERS| 2018
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CASE STUDY: FARIA LIMA
AVENUE CYCLE LANE
(SÃO PAULO)
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6%
94%
bicicletas elétricas em 2019
Bicicleta elétrica (todas) Bicicleta comum
CASE STUDY: BIKE LANE - AV. FARIA LIMA| 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019
6366
32 16 2 8 14681
110
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Bicycle On foot Skate Scooter (non-electric)
Mopeds Electricunicycle
Scooter(electric)
Tricycle
Total trips (2019) - from 6am to 10pm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
6h-7h 7h-8h 8h-9h 9h-10h
10h-11h
11h-12h
12h-13h
13h-14h
14h-15h
15h-16h
16h-17h
17h-18h
18h-19h
19h-20h
Cyclists per hour (float)
2013 2015 2018 2019
123,29 138,64
345,71
408,29
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
450,00
Average cyclists per hour
2013 2015 2018 2019
2019 - from 6am to 10pm
Bicycles per type Total de viagens Percentual
Individual ordinary bicycles 2616 41,09%
Shared Bicycles 3290 51,68%
Pedelecs 414 6,50%
Cargo-bikes 46 0,72%
Total: 6366 100%
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6%
94%
bicicletas elétricas em 2019
Bicicleta elétrica (todas) Bicicleta comum
CASE STUDY: BIKE LANE - AV. FARIA LIMA| 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Shared bicycles vs all other cycles - total trips from 6am to 8pm
Shared Bicycles All other cycles
1735
421
371
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pedelec trips
1735
329348
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2013 2015 2018 2019
PRIVATE PEDELEC TRIPS - FROM 6AM TO 8PM
0 0
92
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2015 2018 2019
SHARED PEDELEC TRIPS - FROM 6AM TO 8PM
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Findings & Conclusion
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FINDINGS & CONCLUSION
Electric bicycles could play a key role in urban mobility, logistics, quality of life in Brazilian cities. Also they could be decisive in modal shifting from cars.
In order to boost EPACs in Brazil, the cost of the product and the lack of cyclingpolicies – such as bikelanes – are the two main factors inhibiting EPAC’spopularization.
Comparative analysis w/ other countries showed that the market for EPACs is even more encouraged (tax breaks) than that of conventional bicycles. Brazil is an exception.
Data shows EPACs are enlarging bicycle economy in Brazil instead of cannibalizingit.