How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS...

15
How to lie with Statistics How to lie with Statistics Darrel Huff 1954

Transcript of How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS...

Page 1: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

How to lie with StatisticsHow to lie with Statistics

Darrel Huff

1954

Page 2: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
Page 3: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

O que e a media?O que e a media?

Aluno John Ann Bob Mary Sue Carol Ken

Dinheiro $2 $3 $1 $10 $5 $2 $999

Media Mediana Moda

$146 $3 $2

Page 4: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

Media sem sentidoMedia sem sentido

Escala Likert:

1.- Muito satisfeito

2.- Satisfeito

3.- Regular

4.- Insatisfeito

5.- Muito insatisfeito

Page 5: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

Escolhendo a amostra:Escolhendo a amostra:

Lançar a moeda 10 vezes.

Page 6: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

GraficosGraficos

Page 7: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
Page 8: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

GraficosGraficos

Page 9: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
Page 10: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
Page 11: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
Page 12: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
Page 13: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

Conclusoes a posterioriConclusoes a posteriori

Resultados de pesquisa de 1950 dos formandos em Cornell University:

93% dos homens de meia-idade eram casados 65% das mulheres de meia-idade eram casadas Conclusao: Fazer faculdade seriamente arrisca

as mulheres a ficarem solteiras!

Page 14: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

A lei dos grandes númerosA lei dos grandes números

Se você lança uma moeda honesta e tira oito caras em seguida claramente a chance de tirar uma

coroa é maior pois precisa acertar a frequência relativa!

Page 15: How to lie with Statistics - Unicampnancy/Cursos/me639/howtolie.pdf · HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS (Huff, D. 1954) There are three kinds Of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics