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Transcript of Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE ... · PDF fileATMOS Chem-Aerosol...

  • Paulo Nobre, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, A. P. Aguiar, S. C. Chou, V. B. Capistrano, P. Kubota, M. Baptista Jr., E. Giarolla, M. Bottino, D. S. Moreira, S. Nilo, D. Alvin, J. Pendharkar, J. P. Bonatti, A. Silva, E. Ramirez, T.

    Tarasova, F. Pesquero, M. H. Costa, G. Sampaio, M. Cardoso, C. Augusto Jr, H. C. Soares, F. Casagrande, F. Odorizi, A. A. de Castro, A. D. Nobre, A. Cuartas, A. Lanfer, C. A. Nobre

    Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE

    Conferncia INCT-MC, FAPESP, 30 de Setembro de 2016

  • The Challenge: To build an Earth System Model in Brazil, from state of

    the art component models in the nation and abroad:

    1. To incorporate expert knowledge (e.g. the LBA program) about ocean-ice-atmosphere-biosphere interactions of relevance to Brazil;

    2. To provide the scientific foundations of global climate change scenarios for mitigation and adaptation policies to climate change in Brazil;

    3. To contribute to form a new generation of modeling-capable earth system scientists in the nation.

  • Our Goal for INCT-MC Earth System Modeling Project

  • BESM-LuccME-EtaClimate Forecast System

    MOM5

    OGCM

    IC

    Coupled Forecast

    GFDLS

    FMScoupler

    GFDLs

    MOM5OGCM

    CPTECs

    AGCMF90 mpi

    GFDLs

    SISMarine Ice

    CCSTs

    INLANDSfc Model

    TOPAZbiogeochemistryCO2

    N, P, K

    SST

    U, VIce &

    Albedo

    Sfc Fluxes

    Prec

    Temp,

    Winds

    HeatF

    P-E

    Winds

    HeatF

    Lprec, Snow,

    SolarRad, T, U, V

    Prec,

    Temp,

    HeatFSST

    Albedo

    Chemistry

    Aerosol

    THMB

    Hydrology

    AGRO

    Agriculture

    FIRE

    Forest Fire

    Initialization

    Winds

    Solar

    NCEPS

    Analises

    CPTECs

    AGCMF90 mpi

    T, S

    MOM5

    OGCM

    Atmos

    Obs

    Coupled

    Initialization

    hourly

    Coupled

    Timestep

    Eta

    Regional

    Atmos

    Regional Products

    LuccME

    Land Use

  • LuccME Schematic

  • INLAND Schematic

    BESM

    LuccME

    Eta

  • LuccME-INLAND Results

    LuccME ScenarioINLAND Simulation 2005-2050Land Use off, Fire off Land Use on, Fire on

  • RIVER ICE

    BioChemistry Predictability

    Fire

    Hydrology Land Use

    RIVERS

    H2O

    Heat

    CO2Trace Gases

    Particles

    2080-2099 A1B 2080-2099 A1B

    LAND (INLAND INPE/CCST)

    ATMOSPHERE (INPE/CPTEC)

    OCEAN (MOM5 NOAA/GFDL)

    ATMOS Chem-Aerosol (MOZART-MAM/NCAR)

    FMS COUPLER

    CO2

    Co

    urt

    esy: P

    au

    lo N

    ob

    re

    BESM Component Models

  • BESM DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

    (i) full use of CPTECs experience and sub-models

    (ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad

    Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building-block

    Use GFDL/FMS coupler to add components: Dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle;

    Continental hydrology-ocean coupling;

    Ocean carbon cycle;

    Sea ice;

    Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols.

  • One-Model: From extreme weather to Global Climate Change Scenarios

    Extreme Events Hit Brazil

    T666L96

    T213L64

    T126L42

    T062L28

    Surface Temperature Trend in Brazil

  • BESM2.5 CMIP5 Runs 1850-2100Air Temperature at 2m

    Courtesy: V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM

    RCP8.5

    RCP4.5

    HISTORICAL

  • Atlantic Meridional Mode

    SST, Taux, Tauy Joint EOF1

    BESM2.5 historical run (11.4%)ERSSTv4 (9.3%)

    Courtesy: S. Veiga, INPE/PGMET

    BESM Historical Run

  • BESM RCP Runs

    RCP8.5 RCP4.5

  • BESM SCENARIOS via ESGF

  • BESM CMIP5 Scenarios on theEarth System Grid Federation - ESGF

    Brazil

    Courtesy: W. Mendes, INPE/BESM

  • BESM-OA2.5 Global Average SST

    300 year run

  • Abrupt4xCO2 - piControl

    INPE/BESM 2.5 NCAR/CCSM 4

    GFDL/CM 2.1 MOHC/HadGEM2-ES

    Sou

    rce:

    Cap

    istr

    ano

    et

    al (

    20

    15

    ) in

    pre

    par

    atio

    n

  • BESM abrupt4xCO4 Temperature

  • BESM abrupt4xCO4 Precipitation

  • ERA interim REANALISYS BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1

    BESM UPPER LEVEL FLOW

    Cloud Cover Parameterization in BESM & Amazon Rainfall-Circulation

    GPCP BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1

    Bottino and Nobre (2015), Submitted to Climate Dynamics

  • BESM Atlantic ITCZ simulations

    ERAI

    NCCS (bias = -1.72; rmse = 2.95)

    CTRL (bias = -4.38; rmse = 5.11)

    V at 10 m (m/s): 5N 30W +/- 2

    ITCZ Meridional Migration

    Bottino and Nobre (2015), Submitted to Climate Dynamics

  • Super Typhoon Haiyan 2014

    24 h FCST CPTEC-AGCM (T666L64)

    CPTEC T666L64 24h FCST TRMM RAINFALL OBS

    Courtesy: Silvio N. Figueroa, INPE/CPTEC

  • MOM5

    CPTEC AGCM4.1

    T10m, v10m q10m

    SST & albedo

    BESM2.6

    FMS

    SST Control

    Rainfall Control

  • BESM2.7 (2016-17) under construction

    VEGETATION: IBIS

    HIDROLOGY: THMB

    MOM5: KPP

    MOM5: TOPAZ, SIS

    SPECTRAL DYNAMICS: Semi_Lagrangian (25km)

    S-L RADIATION: RRTMG

    Cloud MICROPHYSICS: Ferreir-1MDeep CONVECTION Grell

    CHEMIMSTRY: AEROSSOLS:

    PBL: dry MY2.0; moist Park

    ATMOSPHERE

    LAND OCEAN

    FMS COUPLER

  • International Cooperation

    BESMINPE, UFV, USP, UFSM

    NASA/GISSUSA

    IAPChina

    CSIRSouth Africa

    NOAA/GFDLUSA

    IITMIndia

    WHRCUSA

    IISCIndia

    NCARUSA

  • FUNDING AGENCIES

    BESM

    MCTIC/CNPq/Rede CLIMA

    MCTIC/PNUD

    MCTIC/INPE

    MCTIC/FINEP

    MCTIC/CNPq/INCT-MC

    CAPES/ANA

    MCTIC/CNPq/IBAS

    FAPESP/PFPMCG

  • BESM PRODUCTS

    ENSO FCST

    M.Sc.Thesis

    CMIP6 Scenarios

    CMIP5 Scenarios

    Seasonal Climate FCSTs

    Ph. D. Dissertations

    Dynamical Extended FCST

    ESM capabilities for

    Universities

    BESM

  • Concluding Remarks

    BESM-OA fully coupled global model has been completed, allowing Brazil to inaugurate its participation in the CMIP5 global climate change model intercomparison project.

    Next steps: Developing BESM into a Full ESM, with dynamical vegetation, continental hydrology and atmospheric chemistry-aerosol, toward CMIP6.

  • Atmosphere Ocean Surface

    Aerosols & Chemistry

    Silvio N. FigueroaJos P. BonattiPaulo KubotaEnver RamirezPablo ReynesJos Pesquero

    BESM Science Team

    Dbora AlvimJayant Pendharkar

    Paulo NobreEmanuel Giarolla

    Andre LanferHelena Soares

    Raquel L. MelloVincius B. Capistrano

    Gilvan SampaioManoel CardosoMarcos SanchesAdriana LuzAntono. D. NobreCarlos Guimares Jr.Marcos Costa (UFV)

    ProjectManagement

    Paulo Nobre (PI)Manuel BaptistaBianca AntunesFelipe Odorizi

    Graduate Students

    Mabel C. CostaSandro Veiga

    Fernanda CasagrandeWendel Max

  • Foto

    : co

    rtes

    ia d

    e A

    nto

    nio

    No

    bre Thank you!

    Muito Obrigado!