Modelagem Climática da Rede GEOMA: Resultados recentes dos efeitos do

desmatamento, fogo e aquecimento global

I Simpósio da Rede GEOMAOut 2007

Grupo de Interação Biosfera-AtmosferaCPTEC - INPE

Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e

David LapolaDavid LapolaDavid LapolaDavid Lapola

“Regional Climate Change Over Eastern Amazonia Caused by Pasture and Soybean Cropland

Expansion”

Gilvan Sampaio1*, Carlos Nobre1, Marcos H. Costa2, Prakki Satyamurty1, Britaldo S. Soares-Filho3 and

Manoel F. Cardoso1

1 CPTEC/INPE2 UFV

3 UFMG

Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17709.13sep2007

Land-cover ScenariosContr 20% 40% 50%

60% 80% 100%

or Soybean

Soares-Filho et al. (2006) / Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA Sampaio et al., 2007

Vegetation classesDorman and Sellers

‏(1989)

Amazonia - PastureArea: East/Northeast

y = -0.1451x2 - 0.0577x + 1.0084

R2 = 0.9711

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Deforested Area (%)

Rel

ativ

e pr

ecip

itatio

n (p

/p0)

member 1

member 2

member 3

member 4

member 5

average

Polynom(average)

Sampaio et al. GRL (2007)‏

decrease in precipitation

associated with pasture expansion

Amazonia - PASTURE

Amazonia - SOYBEANArea: East/Northeast

y = -0.3149x2 + 0.0315x + 1.0102

R2 = 0.9771

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Deforested Area (%)

Rel

ativ

e P

reci

pita

tion

(p/p

0 )

member 1

member 2

member 3

member 4

member 5

average

Polynom(average)

the magnitude of precipitation

decrease is higher over soybean than

over pasture

Sampaio et al. GRL (2007)‏

Amazonia - SOYBEAN

Amazonia - PASTUREArea: East/Northeast

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Deforestation Area (%)

Rel

ativ

e P

reci

pita

tion

(p/p

0)

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

Amazonia - SOYBEANArea: East/Northeast

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Deforestation Area (%)

Rel

ativ

e P

reci

pita

tion

(p/p

0)

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

PASTURE SOYBEAN

Season All Pasture All Soybean

JJA -27.5% -39.8%

SON -28.1% -39.9%

Relative Precipitation

The reduction in precipitation occurs mainly during the dry season , and is more evident when the deforested area is larger than 40% !

Season All Pasture All Soybean

JJA -15.7% -24.0%all Amazonia

Sampaio et al. GRL (2007)‏

“Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South

America”

Luis Salazar1, C. Nobre1 and M. D. Oyama2

1 CPTEC/INPE2 IAE-CTA

Geophys. Res. Lett. (2007), 34, L09708, doi:10.1029/2007GL029695

Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for 2090-2099 from 15 AOGCMs for the A2 emissions scenarios

Substituição da floresta tropical por savana ! Salazar et al. (2007)‏

Grid points where more than 75% of the models used (> 11 models) coincide as projecting the future condition of the tropical forest and the savanna in relation with the current potential vegetation. The figure also shows the grid points where a consensus amongst the models of the future condition of the tropical forest was not found. for the periods (a) 2020-2029, (b) 2050-2059 and (c) 2090-2099 for B1 GHG emissions scenario and (d), (e) and (f) similarly for A2 GHG emissions scenario.

2090-20992050-20592020-2029

2090-20992050-20592020-2029

Consensus between natural biome projections - maps

Salazar et al. (2007)‏

Percentage of the area where more than 75% of the experiments for the A2 GHG scenarios, coincide as projecting the permanence or disappearance of the current potential tropical forest, and where there is not a conclusive consensus amongst models

Consensus between natural biome projections - statistics

Salazar et al. (2007)‏

“Long-term potential for fires in estimates of the occurrence of savannas in the

tropics”

Global Ecology and Biogeography (2007)‏DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00356.x

1 CPTEC/INPE2 IAE-CTA

Manoel Cardoso1, Carlos Nobre1, David Lapola1, Marcos Oyama2 and Gilvan Sampaio1

Dados de referência Result. anteriores CPTEC-PVMResultados anteriores Resultados anteriores Resultados anteriores Resultados anteriores mostram diferenmostram diferenmostram diferenmostram diferençççças as as as importantes entre importantes entre importantes entre importantes entre

dados e estimativas dados e estimativas dados e estimativas dados e estimativas do CPTECdo CPTECdo CPTECdo CPTEC----PVM para PVM para PVM para PVM para a posia posia posia posiçççção de savanasão de savanasão de savanasão de savanas

Dorman and Sellers (1989) �

florestas secasflorestas secasflorestas secasflorestas secas savanassavanassavanassavanas

Fogo natural (longo termo)‏

Menos árvores

Mais gramíneas

Savana no lugar de florestas

Principal hipótese para explicar estas diferenças: ocorrência de fogo

Raios

Padrões de vento de

grande escala(vento zonal

de leste)‏

RelaRelaRelaRelaçççção entre resultados ão entre resultados ão entre resultados ão entre resultados novos e antigos novos e antigos novos e antigos novos e antigos

correção

Nova parametrização de fogo baseada no potencial de

raios corrige a maior parte das diferenças

Novos resultadosNovos resultadosNovos resultadosNovos resultados

RepresentaRepresentaRepresentaRepresentaçççção de fogo natural em savanas / CPTECão de fogo natural em savanas / CPTECão de fogo natural em savanas / CPTECão de fogo natural em savanas / CPTEC----PVMPVMPVMPVM

Cardoso et al. (2007)‏

CG

Potencial de ocorrência de raios

Posição relativa entre fonte de umidade – vento – topografia

2000m

1000m

Potencial de ocorrência de fogo

Principais regiões de savana (amarelo), e topografia e oceanos

Padrões de circulação durante a transição entre estações seca e chuvosa

Sub-regiões de acordo com a época de transição entre estação seca e chuvosa

Impact of using the new fire parameterization in the biome estimates of the CPTEC Potential Vegetation Model:

Accounting for fires corrected important differences between preAccounting for fires corrected important differences between preAccounting for fires corrected important differences between preAccounting for fires corrected important differences between previous vious vious vious model estimates and reference data for the position of natural smodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural smodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural smodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural savannas avannas avannas avannas in the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia thin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia thin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia thin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia that were at were at were at were initially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forestsinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forestsinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forestsinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forests. . . .

Major vegetation types:(1) broadleaf(1) broadleaf(1) broadleaf(1) broadleaf----evergreen trees (tropical evergreen trees (tropical evergreen trees (tropical evergreen trees (tropical forest), forest), forest), forest), (2) broadleaf(2) broadleaf(2) broadleaf(2) broadleaf----deciduous trees deciduous trees deciduous trees deciduous trees (temperate forest)(temperate forest)(temperate forest)(temperate forest)‏‏ ‏‏(3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (mixed forest)(mixed forest)(mixed forest)(mixed forest)‏‏ ‏‏(4) needleleaf(4) needleleaf(4) needleleaf(4) needleleaf----evergreen trees (boreal evergreen trees (boreal evergreen trees (boreal evergreen trees (boreal forest)forest)forest)forest)‏‏ ‏‏(5) needleleaf(5) needleleaf(5) needleleaf(5) needleleaf----deciduous trees (larch), deciduous trees (larch), deciduous trees (larch), deciduous trees (larch), (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (savanna)(savanna)(savanna)(savanna)‏‏ ‏‏(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)‏‏ ‏‏(8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial groundcover (caatinga)groundcover (caatinga)groundcover (caatinga)groundcover (caatinga)‏‏ ‏‏(9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (semi(semi(semi(semi----desert)desert)desert)desert)‏‏ ‏‏(10) dwarf trees and shrubs with (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with groundcover (tundra)groundcover (tundra)groundcover (tundra)groundcover (tundra)‏‏ ‏‏(11) bare soil (desert)(11) bare soil (desert)(11) bare soil (desert)(11) bare soil (desert)‏‏ ‏‏(13) ice. (13) ice. (13) ice. (13) ice.

Cardoso et al. (2007)‏

Inclusão do ciclo do carbono no CPTEC PVMDiss. mestradoDavid Lapola

FOTOSSÍNTESEBALANÇO

HÍDRICO

RESPIRAÇÃO

MICROBIANA

RESPIRAÇÃO

VEGETAL

T e P

Vm

LAI

E

w

rcNPP

Diagrama esquemático simplificado do sub-modelo de ciclo de carbono proposto, apresentando os processos que influenciam em cada compartimento. T: temperatura; P: precipitação; w: água no solo; Vm: taxa de carboxilação da Rubisco; LAI: índice de área foliar; NPP: produtividade primária líquida; rc: resistência do dossel; E: evapotranspiração.

Lapola (2007)‏