Pequeno  resumo  da  história  dos  humanos.  As  próximas  gerações  darão  conta  do  recado?  

João  S.  Furtado  15junho2015  

Os  hominídeos  desceram  das  árvores,  há  pelo  menos  7  milhões  de  anos  atrás.  Foram  capazes  de  ficar  de  pé  e  caminhar  com  as  duas  pernas.  O  grupo  engloba  chipanzés,  gorilas,  orangotangos  e  ...  melhor  não  se  chocar  ...  os  humanos    antigos  e  os  atuais.  Nós,  os  Homo  sapiens.  

Lucy  foi  a  fêmea  hominídea,  com  1,20  de  altura,  que  se  tornou  a  personagem  mais  famosa,  até  o  momento,  na  história  biológica  da  humanidade.  O  nome  foi   inspirado  na  música  dos  Bettles  “Lucy  in  the  Sky  with  Diamonds”,  sucesso  mundial  na  ocasião  da  descoberta  do  fóssil,  em  1974.  Lucy  viveu  há  cerca  de  3,8-­‐4  milhões  de  anos  e  foi  considerada  o  grande  tesouro  arqueológico  e  antropológico,  para  os  humanos  atuais.    

Os  fósseis  de  nós,  os  homo  sapiens,  foram  datados  de  200.000-­‐150.000  anos  atrás.  Porém,  há  “primos”  longínquos,  na  escala  de  tempo,  que  viveram  entre  2,8  milhões  e  1  milhão  de  anos  e  utilizavam   tecnologia   para   produzir   artefatos   de   pedra.   Além   desses,   há   outros   “parentes”  primitivos.    

O  homem  neandertal  foi  o  último.  Habitou  a  Europa,  há  350.000  anos  e  desapareceu  há  cerca  de  30.000  anos.  Conviveram  com  os  sapiens  em  cavernas,  durante  pelo  menos  40.000  anos  com  quem  se  cruzaram:  99,7%  do  DNA  de  neandertais  estão  presentes  nas  pessoas  que  circulam  por  aí.  

Por  100.000  anos  os  humanos  sapiens  viveram  na  Idade  da  pedra.  Organizaram-­‐se  em  tribos  e  vilas,  mantidos  pela  caça  e  por  colheitas  e  se  comunicavam  através  de  linguagem.  Continuaram  em   cavernas   naturais   ou   subterrâneas,   até   cerca   de   10.000   anos,   com   o   início   da  Civilização  antiga.   Adotaram  organização   social   sob   a   forma   de  Estado,   cidade   ou   reino.  Desenvolveram  assentamentos  agrícolas  e,  há  4.400  anos,  passaram  a  se  comunicar  pela  escrita.  Surgiu,  assim  o  processo  civilizatório,  com  o  desenvolvimento  de  habilidades,  tecnologias  e  a  capacidade  para  lidar  com  símbolos,  idiomas  e  diferentes  modos  de  expressar  artes  e  comportamentos.    

A  Era  moderna  iniciou-­‐se  há  1.000  anos,  com  a  concepção  do  modelo  Estado-­‐Nação,  o  sistema  de  industrialização  e  a  expansão  da  imprensa,  graças  à  invenção  da  palavra  impressa,  em  1440,  apesar  da  gravação  da  escrita  na  Pedra  de  Roseta  ter  acontecido  no  século  196  Antes  de  Cristo.    

O   grande   salto   da   humanidade   aconteceu  na  Fase   ou   era   planetária,   com  os  movimentos   de  governança  global,  globalização  da  economia,  a  Internet,  no  final  do  ano  de  1969  e  a  criação  da  WWW,  a  World  Wide  Web,  em  1992.    

Nos   últimos   60   anos,   os   humanos   sapientes   inventaram   e   aperfeiçoaram   aeronaves,   jatos,  foguetes,   viagens   espaciais,   rádio,   telefone,   TV.   Nos   últimos   30   anos,   surgiram   transistores,  microcomputadores,  microchips,  sondas  espaciais,  radiotelescópio,   Internet.  Nos  finais  5  anos,  grandes   avanços   em   robótica,   tecnologia   de   informação  e   comunicação,   inteligência   artificial,  armazenamento   de   dados   e   comunicação   virtual,   Internet   móvel,   transmissão   em   massa   de  dados   e   informações   online,   computação   em   nuvem,   equipamentos   e   serviços   inteligentes  (smarts),  Internet  de  coisas,  impressora  3D,  rastreamento  e  localização  à  distância  (GPS),  chips  implantados,  avanços  em  biotecnologia  e  nanotecnologia,  células  de  energia,  energia  renovável,  genes  sintéticos,  células  tronco,  pele  sintética,  eletricidade  sem  fio,  e  tantos  outros.  

Os   inventos   futurísticos   incluem:   ecossistemas   e   bioquímica   alternativos,   elevador   espacial,  robôs   inteligentes,   download   da   memória   pessoal   (leitura   da   mente),   homem   multitúdino  (engenharia   genética   sintética   e   cibernética   com   inteligência   artificial),   organismos   smarts,  

organismos   coletivos,   embriões   sob   medida   (customizados),   máquinas   conscientes,   vida   no  ciberespaço,  mundo  virtual,  e  mais.    

Quem  viver,  verá!  Mas,  assustador,  não?    

Ian Pearson

Singularitarian utopia

or a new dark age?

www.futurizon.com

The singularity

• Some illustrations of the enormous

potential first, then some examples of

how adding a high level of ambient

stupidity might mean we might make a

mess of it

The singularity (critical level positive feedback in technology development)

2020 2040

Normal tech progress

Invention curve can

go almost vertical Tech level

Exponent increases rapidly

as tech improves,

especially as AI kicks in

2000

Implementation

rate is limited

Main driver is NBIC Convergence

(nano-bio-info-cogno)

Nanotech gives

us tiny devices

Tiny sensors help

neuroscience figure

out how the mind

works Insights from

neuroscience feed into

machine intelligence

Improving machine

intelligence

accelerates R&D in

every sphere

Biotech and IT advances

make body and machine

connectable

Elemental Resources

Better supply as we discover more and

reach into space

Materials tech development means we

will need less raw material and have a

range of potential substitutes

Better recycling means elements mainly

just move around

Global land management

Food Energy

Physical

infrastructure

Housing Nature

With increasing global

wealth, we need to

make more effort to

use limited land on the

basis of global needs.

Use farmland to grow

food. Use deserts to

collect energy.

Could feed up to 20Bn

people or return some

land to nature.

Doom-mongers are wrong, again!

Increasing population increases supply of intelligence and

solutions faster than demand

Energy shortage is a short to mid term problem

We can produce more of everything than people need

Clean water will be plentiful

We will also need less and waste less.

Long term pollution will decline

Real problems are short term, and some of those come

from policies created by doom-mongers, such as biofuels

and energy poverty

A better world

via cheap energy

Tissue-cultured meat

Water production All-electric

transport

Landfill

mining

Shale gas

Thorium

Fusion

Solar farms

….

Potential for space too

Tourism Ark 1

Galileo Space elevator

Asteroid mining

30km high graphene structures

43o

Tension member

plan

member structure

Graphene sheet

Graphene

ribbon wrap

C nanotube fill

Tubular wall structure

vacuum

Vacuum-filled columns made of

hierarchical mesh/tape/cross

members. 30km Earth version

can be made lighter than air for

most of the height, and could be

erected like growing grass, by

adding to members at ground

rather than at top, enabling

easy erection and super-tall

structures. Graphene foam

could be lighter than helium and

used as buoyancy aid.

Moon version could be over

150km high. seal

platform

IT progress so far

But it isn’t

over yet!!!

Electronic jewellery

Bring your own kit 2.0

Identification,

security

Social status

Digital image

augmentation

Communication,

data distribution

Sensing

Medical

monitoring,

alarms

Networking

Decoration

Tribal signalling

Digital bubble

Mobile

website

Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to jewellery size. Combinations

of devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.

Any

form

Display evolution

Large wall displays, street ads, coffee table displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc

The more personal displays become, the more opportunity they present

Active contact lens (Pearson 1991)

laser

focusing

micromirror

retina

lasers

Gaze direction sensor

Micromirror Inductive

power

supply

Processing

Comms

& ctrl

Laser Laser

Laser

Gaze

direction

sensor

Diamond

substrate Resolution limited by the eye

Allows natural distance perception

Tiny environmental footprint

Casual displays

Program an image on a cheap

display by touch. Could have lots

of reusable card displays all over

your house or office.

Finger can transmit electrical

power and 2Mb/s data, 1 second

contact for a decent photo, with a

networked wristband or hand held

device as the data and power

source.

Virtualisation as happiness amplifier

People, buildings and objects can emit an interactive digital ‘aura’

Hi-res, 3D information overlays for email, leisure, socialisation, navigation etc

Dual appearance – Can blend games into real

world

– You can choose how you appear

– Everyone can see the world differently

– Fight off aliens while your partner chooses an outfit.

Gel computing

Large number of capsules suspended in gel using

free-space comms to link up to form ad-hoc circuitry

Sensor

Power

Processing

comms

LED Rx

Storage

Sensor

Sensing

Single core

Dual core

Quad core

Massively multiple

core-multiple chip

D

i

g

i

t

a

l

Digital &

Analog

Self-organisation used with

AI-controlled evolution to

build circuit/function

libraries and eventually

strong AI 48 core

OB1 - optical brain mk1

A conscious computer

1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel

1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to

2 million emotions & unlimited senses

Could be fully sentient

Could be benign or malicious

Could be linked to other devices via the net

Optical ‘hormone’

Gel

Sensory stimulus

sensory

encoding

playback

Sensory

echo Internal sensing

neural vortex

generation

Neural

response

Neural interference

processing vortex

Smart cells could exist in both real world and cyberspace

Molecular circuitry

assembled by cell 1 micron

Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make

sophisticated self organising circuits

Custom

DNA

20

Permanent layer Mid-term layer Transfer layer

Detachable layer Wearable layer

Active skin – the body as IT platform

Skin Epidermis

Dermis

Skin-based electronics can link blood

chemistry and nerve signals to

external computers and systems

Even thought

recognition is

starting to

appear now

Emotiv Epoc headset

for computer games

IQ and sensory enhancement

and electronic immortality

Billions of tiny sensors linked to every

synapse, signalling activity to external

replica and able to recreate signals

generated by external replica

Billions of smart bacteria with synthetic

neurons replicating behaviour of every

individual neuron but able to run at much

higher speeds and with connectivity to

net and other brains.

Sensory enhancement

Sensory

translation

unit

Input Output

External sensors

Wearable sensors

Detachable sensors

Implanted sensors

Alarms

Telemetry

Monitors

Logs

Control

systems

Messaging

Audio

Video

Heat or vibration

Pain or pleasure

Magnetic field

Radiation (EM or nuclear)

Magnetic field

Temperature

Location

Proximity

Sound

Chemical or

microbiological presence

Data

Pollutants

New senses

How close can you get?

2010: Can touch

2020 can link dreams

2025: Can link nervous systems

2040: Can link brains

2050:Can share enhanced

consciousness in machine

2060: can share bodies too

2075: can merge completely

Dream linking

Dream state is detected in each

person and then appropriate

imagery and sound created in

both headsets by computer.

Ongoing detection of thoughts

and emotions during dream

influences choice of material.

The Borg, 2075-2200

Medium

A global environment linking together

all the minds of people and

sentient machines in a global

consciousness

Shared consciousness & awareness

Shared personalities

Link nervous systems together

Body sharing

Fuzzy boundaries between people

Post-organic life Under 40s might live forever

As brain add-ons and IQ, memory

and sensory upgrades account for

an ever-increasing proportion of your

mind’s capability and content, death

of the organic body becomes just an

inconvenience. You may simply buy

an android, upload and carry on.

By then you may have spawned

numerous replicas. Which are you?

OK, so: What will your next body look like? How

many will you have? Will you be willing to share?

Repliee, Osaka University,

lots of descendants now

Human-machine Convergence

Homo

habilis

homo erectus

homo sapiens

neanderthalensis

- 1.5M years - 125,000 years

homo sapiens

- 750,000 years - 40,000 years

Today

homo

optimus

50 years

100 years

homo

cyberneticus

homo sapiens ludditus

homo hybridus

robotus

primus

150 years

robotus

multitudinus

homo

machinus

Sims sapiens

Bacteria sapiens

Gaia

sapiens

homo

zombius?

NBIC enabled

organisms,

including

transhumans

Natural world,

including

Mk 1 humans

Cyberspace life,

including conscious

machines

Blurred

boundary

Make new organisms &

Ecosystems

Alternative biochemistry

Organic resources

Gaia 2.0

We may have to

help fix, rebuild or

even recreate

damaged organic

resources such as

fisheries and

rainforests

Panda 2.0

Enhance mating desire. Add

fertility sensors, GPS

location and dating sites so

that Pandas can find

suitable mates at the right

times. Adjust discrimination

levels so that potential

mates are less fussy.

Making other organisms smart

Smart mice, chimps,

dogs, cats, worms?

Nanotechnology

Biotechnology

Artificial

Intelligence

Hybrid animal brains

that contain synthetic

processing and

memory but exist

and compete in both

natural world and

cyberspace

Smart bacteria could exist in both real world and cyberspace

Molecular circuitry

assembled by cell 1 micron

Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make

sophisticated self organising circuits

Custom

DNA

E-bay-bies?

2010 2030 2050

DNA mix

digital

conception

Computer

Simulation

E-birth

Optional genetic

Assembly

Physical birth

Machine-designed

humans

2070

sentience

0

Human

equivalence

How long will it be before it will be considered irresponsible not to

genetically enhance your kids?

At what stage of electronic emulation or genetic assembly does a child

become legally human?

Parents can be of any

gender

AI evolution

AIs will have their own cultures and civilisation that will cross fertilise with ours

Sims will get much smarter!

Some AIs will migrate from cyberspace into the real world

Some people might move into cyberspace – retirement or suicide?

Cyberspace fauna and flora The Sims, EA Games

But is all of this progress?

Starting to get scary isn’t it?

Who gets to decide how far we go?

Do you trust them?

Should we allow sentient beings in computer

games to be controlled by children?

How long will it be before ‘Robot Wars’

transforms into an android version of the

Roman Coliseum with synthetic blood?

Increasing danger from technology Probability of

extinction-

level event per

year

1M BC 1950 today 2050

1%

0.5%

ETA for tech-enabled extinction is

2085

Via Pandemics, NBIC accidents or

weapons, AI, climatic instability, or

100s of variants

Perhaps we don’t see aliens because they all wipe themselves out within 300 years of discovering radio!

Terminator scenario?

If we create smarter-than-man machines, we risk extinction.

Even if they are not malign, we may end up in the same

bargaining position as ants on a building site.

If we can enhance or link human brain to the same level of

intelligence, then such a capability gap will not occur.

We need a good brain-machine link before we can safely make

smarter-than-man machines

V

2025: Smart yogurt: Self-organising

smart bacteria, WMD x 2

Can use chemical gradients to self-organise components

into very complex structures

Smart bacteria could use cloud computing to re-design

their offspring, thereby adapting to any environment,

destroying all other life and terraforming Earth

Smart bacteria could control minds of people infected,

enslaving them and making them into zombies

Espionage 35nm tech means 200M transistors/mm2.

Small specks of smart dust can be concealed anywhere

e.g. sand or dirt, passed on by handshake, or dust settling from the air, in food, seeds, gravel or in clothes, stick to shoes. Air conditioning is a new security risk

Even coins or banknotes could be used to hide devices to monitor, record and transmit activity

Human vision limit: 0.1mm

Apple 2 computer needs 0.015mm

0.25MB memory chips: 0.05mm Ant: 10mm

Parallel web: Sponge nets

Direct inter-device networking will become an important alternative internet platform. May be popular 1984 defense.

Wireless LAN link

to web and

between clusters

Wireless links

Laptops

Tablets

Smart phones

Displays

Digital jewellery

Beacons

Street furniture

Custom devices

Smart clothing

Active skin

Will

tribalism

increase?

Geographic

World Cyberspace

Local

govt

Community

Networks

Global

government

Network

Communities

Geographic

tribalism

Values

tribalism

Social world

Tribalism is built in

to human nature

and fits the web

perfectly. Political

power is migrating

onto the web.

Government is

trying to block

anonymity to slow

the slide.

City A

City B

City C

Tribe X

Tribe Y

Tribe Z

Real World Cyberspace

Urban tribes

People may belong to many

tribes, according to their

professional roles, hobbies,

social groups and political

preferences. Each may

have its own tribal symbols

and uniforms that can be

displayed virtually even

when physical appearance

can’t be altered.

Appearance can be

determined by dynamic

group interaction, location

and other contextual

parameters.

The Stepford Society impossible for law- abiding people to commit an

offence, while criminals do as they please

Speed limits built into car management systems

Anti-tech

backlash

Criminals will bypass all the rules with stolen phones, LCD plates, ID theft…

Criminals will have total freedom, we will have none

Tax enforcement via integrated databases

Identity cards

Face recognition systems

DNA Databases

Road tolling via satellite tracking

Speed cameras everywhere

25% of the world’s CCTV

One stop shop for all government data

Direct control of network capability

Abuse of Millimetre wave cameras

Government knows everywhere you go

Extensive & permanent police records

Monitoring of all comms

Number-plate recognition Smart meters

1984 is here albeit a bit late

Social net

monitoring

Identity cards

Electronic cash ISP logs

CCTV

Smart-phone

disabling

Blogs

Web tracking

Average speed

cameras

Search engines

If you aren’t free to do the wrong thing, you aren’t free at all!

Secrecy for leaders

Random walk of values

Religious texts used to act as a fixed reference for ethical values

Secular society has no fixed reference point so values oscillate quickly.

20 years can yield 180o shift

e.g. euthanasia, sexuality, abortion, animal rights, genetic modification, nuclear energy, family, policing, teaching, authority…

Pressure to conform reinforces relativism at the expense of intellectual rigour

Isms are religion substitutes

environmentalism

warmism political

correctness

animal rights

vegetarianism

anti-capitalism

pacifism fitness

feeling of

inner worth

People have a strong need to feel they are ‘good’. Some of today’s

ideological subscriptions are essentially secular substitutes for religion,

and demand same suspension of free thinking and logical reasoning.

Attitudes

to crime

The Spanish Inquisition spotlight

Religious

freedom

Abortion

rights Animal

rights

Racial

equality

Female

equality

Gay

equality

Carbon

use

Gender

Equality

PC Max

Global

equality ??? ??

Dark Age Pressures

Anti-science

Abdication of

personal

responsibility

Age of magic

Emotionalism Rise of AI

Rejection of

authority

Need to feel good

Rebellion

Care economy

Decline in free-thinking

Moral relativism

IT enablers for the Dark Age

Wikipedia

Digital

bubbles, ego

badges etc

Virtual communities

Chat rooms

Virtual environments

Context engines Blogs Positioning

Memory stick nets

Search engines

Dilution of knowledge

1000 1900 2000 2050

Knowledge

Knowledge

Ignorance

Anti-knowledge

New

dark age

In pursuit of social compliance, we are told to believe things that are known to be false.

With clever enough spin, people accept them and become worse than ignorant

The wiki economy –

beginning of the end

Professional

Wikipedia

Time

Information quality

low

high

Level of enthusiasm of

professional elite to

contribute

Gradually almost every kind of information became available free on the

net. Quality rises for a while but eventually declines because

genuine incentives to contribute reduce, while corrupted incentives increase.

The rise of nonsense

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mainstream beliefs e.g. science, mainstream religions

Nonsense beliefs e.g. new age, alternative medicine,

alternative science, 21stC piety,

political correctness

The age of magic

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is

indistinguishable from magic”, Arthur C

Clarke

As technology becomes both invisible and too

hard to understand, it has a real danger of

becoming like magic to many people, with

damaging effects on the relationship between

people and engineers

The age of magic – professional elite is shrinking

Fashion

Celebrity

TV Culture

Sport

Games

Chat VEs….

Professional

knowledge

1% hold all

useful knowledge

99% only well

informed on trivia

Scientists need to guard against

becoming too fond of their power and

abusing it as 21st century high priests

Losses

Surveillance

Control

Directionless

Terrorism

Oppression

On Balance?

Slight improvement?

Wins

Health

Wealth

Fun

Empowerment

Growth

idpearson@gmail.com

www.futurizon.com

twitter.com/timeguide

Thank you

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