Proposta de roteiro

1. Apresentação (oral) – falar do MAPS/IES-Br? (1 slide)1. Maps internacional2. Projeto participativo3. FBMC, a pedido do MMA

2. Objetivos do estudo: cenários de longo prazo, 2 cenários (CPG x CMA2), que efeitos queremos estudar (emprego, PIB, PIB per capita, desigualdade, poder de compra) (1 slide)

3. Metodologia (Imaclim, figura bottom-up, message, etc.) (2 Slides)-Descrição Imaclim (modelo híbrido, foco em energia, ano-base 2005), exemplos de medidas

modeladas (ex: etanol, eficiência energética, etc.)- Slide com aquela figura que mostra a conexão dos modelos que propus na tese e foi usada no IES

4. Resultados- emprego, PIB, PIB per capita, desigualdade, poder de compra, emissões(???)

5. Conclusões- A implementação de uma política climática ambiciosa não seria um impedimento para um forte

crescimento econômico alinhado a um grande ganho social (Variações no PIB marginais, tendência de aumento do poder de compra e redução tb marginal da desigualdade).

Carolina Grottera and William Wills

Impacts of mitigation policies on labor markets and welfare

July 2015

IES-Brasil project

- A participative process stakeholder involvementAcademia, companies, government, civil society, NGOs

- Part of the MAPS initiative

- Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, supported by the Ministry of Environment

It aims to analyses the economic and social effects of a variety of GHG mitigation scenarios in Brazil until 2030

- We will focus on the effects on GDP, employment, income distribution and purchasing power

Objective

Governmental Planning Scenario

Mitigation Scenario

or

Mitigation Scenario +

US$100/tCO2e carbon tax

vs.

CPGMA2 or MA2 + T

- We combine a top-down model, the IMACLIM-BR...- A hybrid general equilibrium model- Focused on energy- Integrated monetary and physical data

- ...with sectoral bottom-up models

Methodology

AFOLU Energy Waste Transport Industry

There are plenty of mitigation actions available in all sectors

IMACLIM-BR

CGE modelAgriculture, Forestry &

Other Land Use

Energy

Industrial Processes

Waste

Transport

BLUM

MESSAGELEAP

Modeling framework

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

During the course of the project, the IES-Brasil team analysed what might happen, should a carbon pricing strategy be adopted worldwide. This was explored by considering a carbon tax on the burning of fossil fuels. As such, two additional scenarios were simulated:MA1+T

adopting the same mitigation

measures as those tested in

MA1 in addition to a global carbon

tax of US$ 20/tCO2

MA2+Tadopting the

same mitigation measures as

those tested in MA1 in addition to

a global carbon tax of US$ 100/tCO2

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)Trillion US$ (2005 constant)

In the scenarios that do not consider a global carbon tax, GDP grows less than in the CPGThis is due to the reduction in economic activity: the highest emitting sectors are affected by paying the carbon tax

XXX

XXX

XXX

XXX XX

X

XXX

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

The unemployment rate falls.This is due to the hypothesis adopted by the SBT, that the revenues from the carbon tax offset income tax in order to stimulate job creation.This was considered an appropriate means to counterbalance the decrease in economic activity resultant from the implementation of the carbon tax.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

In the scenarios that consider a global carbon tax, there is also an increase in the average annual household income as a result of the increasing employment rate. The difference in relation to the scenarios that do not consider a carbon tax, is that consumption for Class 3 actually falls slightly in MA2+T, due to the fact that the richest are more affected by the adoption of carbon pricing.

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION BY INCOME CLASS (BRL 2005 constant)

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

As in the scenarios that do not consider a global carbon tax there is a slight fall in total investment and the investment rate.

The reason for this fall is due to the decrease in global and national economic activity due to the carbon tax.

INVESTMENT RATE (% GDP)

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

TRADE SURPLUSBillion US$ (2005 constant)

In contrast the scenarios that did not consider a carbon tax, where the trade surplus fell, in MA1+T the surplus is comparable to that of the CPG.

In MA2+T, the trade surplus almost doubles in relation to the CPG. Implementation of a global tax benefits the Brazilian industry on account of its lower carbon footprint, increasing it’s international competitivity.

XXX

XXX

XXX

XXX

XXX

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS (MtCO2e) In the scenarios that

consider a global carbon tax there is a reduction in emissions when compared to the CPG, and an increase in relation to the other scenarios where GDP is lower.

SUMMARY OF THE CONCLUSIONS

IT IS POSSIBLE TO GROWN ECONOMICALLY,

BETTER SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND REDUCE

GHG EMISSIONS IN ALL OF THE SCENARIOS

CONSIDERED BY THIS STUDY.

IES-Brasil: Social ImplicationsHousehold Income & Purchasing Power

Base year (2005=1) GPS MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T

Poorest 16% hhsAnnual Av. IncomePurchasing Power

11

3.16 2.60

3.38 2.68

3.292.64

3.68 2.87

3.252.71

Mid 60% hhsAnnual Av. IncomePurchasing Power

11

2.78 2.22

2.98 2.27

2.902.23

3.22 2.38

2.85 2.25

Richest 24% hhsAnnual Av. IncomePurchasing Power

11

2.04 1.62

2.18 1.64

2.131.61

2.351.66

2.08 1.58