20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
O Mercado de Gás Natural no Brasil: Desafios à competitividade da indústria
Carlos Augusto Arentz Pereira
Prof. Adjunto UERJ
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
A indústria e o gás na Europa
Extraído de: EUROPE’S DECLINING GAS DEMAND TRENDS AND FACTS ON EUROPEAN GAS CONSUMPTION - DAVE JONES1, MANON DUFOUR, JONATHAN GAVENTA – E3G, June 2015.
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Recordar é viver…. For chemicals, energy is more than a fuel
EU chemical* industry energy consumption by source
Extraído de: ENERGYzing the European chemical industry, High Level Group on Chemistry Intermediary Report 15 January, 2008. Cefic - European Chemical Industry Council
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Energy costs and energy policy matter for important building blocks of the chemical industry
Extraído de: ENERGYzing the European chemical industry, High Level Group on Chemistry Intermediary Report 15 January, 2008. Cefic - European Chemical Industry Council
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Que saudades… EU gas prices: A disadvantage in global competition
USA: $7.20
Canada: $7.10 UK: $8.65
Belgium: $8.50
Russia: $1.50
Qatar: $1.80
Trinidad: $1.65
Japan: $8.70
South Korea: $8.80
China: $6.30
India: $3.70
Bolivia: $1.85
Argentina: $4.85
Iran: $1.25
Saudi Arabia: $0.75 Oman: $1.00
Ukraine: $3.60
Belarus: $3.15
Mexico: $6.85
Brazil : $4.90
Germany: $7.60
Libya: $1.00
Source: ACC
Global Natural Gas Costs – 1st Quarter 2007 ($US per million BTUs)
Extraído de: ENERGYzing the European chemical industry, High Level Group on Chemistry Intermediary Report 15 January, 2008. Cefic - European Chemical Industry Council
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Industry’s essential need: Access to competitively-priced electricity and gas
– Energy prices are key to competitiveness
– While oil has in principle global price levels, electricity and gas remain national/regional markets (gas has the potential to become a global market)
– EU electricity and gas prices are a competitive disadvantage for EU industry
Extraído de: ENERGYzing the European chemical industry, High Level Group on Chemistry Intermediary Report 15 January, 2008. Cefic - European Chemical Industry Council
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
The way forward to ENERGYze the European chemical industry
• ACTIONS NEEDED
– Competitive energy markets are essential: The Energy Package must be strengthened, not weakened
Beyond what the Energy Package will achieve:
– Market dominance: Provide guidance to national regulators on effective measures to prevent abuse of market power.
– Long-term contracts: Workable guidelines on long-term contracts, enabling consumers to enter into long-term supply contracts.
– Transitional measures to allow access to affordable energy for energy-intensive industries until energy markets are competitive.
Extraído de: ENERGYzing the European chemical industry, High Level Group on Chemistry Intermediary Report 15 January, 2008. Cefic - European Chemical Industry Council
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Extraído de: Shale Gas, Competitiveness, and New US Chemical Industry Investment: An Analysis Based on Announced Projects - Economics & Statistics Department - American Chemistry Council - May 2013
Mais recentemente…
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Extraído de: Shale Gas, Competitiveness, and New US Chemical Industry Investment: An Analysis Based on Announced Projects - Economics & Statistics Department - American Chemistry Council - May 2013
A inevitável comparação
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Extraído de: Shale Gas, Competitiveness, and New US Chemical Industry Investment: An Analysis Based on Announced Projects - Economics & Statistics Department - American Chemistry Council - May 2013
A mudança no jogo
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Extraído de: Shale Gas, Competitiveness, and New US Chemical Industry Investment: An Analysis Based on Announced Projects - Economics & Statistics Department - American Chemistry Council - May 2013
A troca de posição competitiva
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP A queda no consumo na Europa
Extraído de: EUROPE’S DECLINING GAS DEMAND TRENDS AND FACTS ON EUROPEAN GAS CONSUMPTION - DAVE JONES1, MANON DUFOUR, JONATHAN GAVENTA – E3G, Jnue 2015.
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Extraído de: Shale Gas, Competitiveness, and New US Chemical Industry Investment: An Analysis Based on Announced Projects - Economics & Statistics Department - American Chemistry Council - May 2013
A ultrapassagem …
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Extraído de: Shale Gas, Competitiveness, and New US Chemical Industry Investment: An Analysis Based on Announced Projects - Economics & Statistics Department - American Chemistry Council - May 2013
.. não somente baseada nos preços, mas em investimentos concomitantes
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Iniciativa Gás para Crescer: Os Subcomitês e seus Desafios
ESCOAMENTO PROCESSAMENTO E
REGAS
“acesso não discriminatório”
“aumento da transparência”
TRANSPORTE
“independência comercial e operacional”
“Modelo de E/S”
COMERCIALIZAÇÃO
“estímulo à concorrência”
“aumento da liquidez”
“desenvolvimento de hub(s) de negociação”
DISTRIBUIÇÃO
“adoção das melhores práticas regulatórias”
HARMONIZAÇÃO TRIBUTÁRIA
“aperfeiçoamento da estrutura tributária do setor de gás natural”
HARMONIZAÇÃO GN e EE
“alocação equilibrada de riscos”
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Lei de Say
• ” A oferta cria sua própria demanda"
Somos vítimas ?
Maldição ?
De onde virá nossa oferta ?
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Horizontes do gás nacional onshore Por que E&P em terra pode ser uma alavanca para
atração de investimentos?
Comparação dos preços de referência do gás natural – jan./17
Fonte: MME (2014)
... no entanto, apenas 23% da produção brasileira de gás natural é em terra (99% dessa produção concentrada em duas operadoras)
21
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Conhecemos os passos...
Extraído de: BAIN & COMPANY e GAS ENERGY. ESTUDO DO POTENCIAL DE DIVERSIFICAÇÃO DA INDÚSTRIA QUÍMICA BRASILEIRA: RELATÓRIO FINAL, 2014.
20 de Junho Santa Gertrudes / SP
Pontos a ponderar
• Mudanças – liberalização ?
• Investimentos – Riscos ?
• Visão integrada
– distribuição de ganhos e riscos ?
• Compreensão dos papéis
– qual é o de cada um ?
• Passado, presente e futuro ?
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