Apresentação Cornelius Luca - Banco Best...2014/11/07 · US

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Disclaimer


responsável pelos actos e omissões que pratique.

documento foi preparada com base em parâmetros

portanto, não é dada nenhuma garantia quanto a precisão

dados incluídos no presente documento referem-se ao

resultados futuros.

reflecte as condições prevalecentes no mercado,

aviso prévio.

informem devidamente, antes de qualquer decisão de

natureza deste e sobre os riscos a que estarão expostos.

investimento, incluindo a possibilidade de perda do

características específicas de cada produto definidas por cada

subjacente ou ao mercado onde se encontra inserido.

Euro’s Standing Among Majors

Banco Best 2014

Euro’s Standing Among Majors

Banco Best 2014 4

Euro’s Standing Among Europeans

Banco Best 2014

Euro’s Standing Among Europeans

Banco Best 2014 5

EUR/USD vs. European Yields

Does One-Size Fit All?

Banco Best 2014

EUR/USD vs. European Yields

Size Fit All?

Banco Best 2014 6

Yen’s Standing Among Asian FX

Banco Best 2014

Yen’s Standing Among Asian FX

Banco Best 2014 7

Dollar/yen estimates in 6 months

Banco Best 2014

Dollar/yen estimates in 6 months

Banco Best 2014 8

AUD/JPY

Banco Best 2014

AUD/JPY

Banco Best 2014 9

Euro/dollar

Banco Best 2014

Euro/dollar

Banco Best 2014 10

Euro/dollar vs. 2 & 10

Banco Best 2014

Euro/dollar vs. 2 & 10-year Spreads

Banco Best 2014 11

Euro/dollar estimates in 6 months

Banco Best 2014

Euro/dollar estimates in 6 months

Banco Best 2014 12

Heikin-Ashi; Main Dish or Side Dish?

Banco Best 2014

Ashi; Main Dish or Side Dish?

Banco Best 2014 13

The Thorny CNH-

Banco Best 2014

-JPY Relationship

Banco Best 2014 14

Banco Best 2014Banco Best 2014 15

G7 Currencies vs. BRIC Currencies

Banco Best 2014

G7 Currencies vs. BRIC Currencies

Banco Best 2014 16

The State of Global Economic Recovery

Banco Best 2014

The State of Global Economic Recovery

Banco Best 2014 17

Fear vs. Growth

Banco Best 2014

Fear vs. Growth

Banco Best 2014 18

Risk on/Risk off vs. S&P 500

Banco Best 2014

Risk on/Risk off vs. S&P 500

Banco Best 2014 19

Dow Jones for the rest of 2014

Banco Best 2014

Dow Jones for the rest of 2014

Banco Best 2014 20

S&P 500 vs G7 Indexes

Banco Best 2014

S&P 500 vs G7 Indexes

Banco Best 2014 21

Silicon Valley Portfolio

Banco Best 2014

Silicon Valley Portfolio

Banco Best 2014 22

Relative Rotational Graph

Banco Best 2014

Relative Rotational Graph

Banco Best 2014 23

The Good & the Bad

Banco Best 2014

The Good & the Bad

Banco Best 2014 24

Social Media Heat Map

Banco Best 2014

Social Media Heat Map

Banco Best 2014 25

Sentiment Bubble Chart

Banco Best 2014

Sentiment Bubble Chart

Banco Best 2014 26

Applicable Fundamentals

Banco Best 2014

Applicable Fundamentals

Banco Best 2014 27























Disclaimer






resultados futuros.


aviso prévio.






FX outlook: USD bull in an FX FX outlook: USD bull in an FX China shop

Lisbon/Porto, November 2014, Saxo Bank A/S

Image source: http://lampoonthesystem.com/user/cartoon_detail.php?id=100

FX outlook: USD bull in an FX FX outlook: USD bull in an FX China shop

Lisbon/Porto, November 2014, Saxo Bank A/S

FX Themes:

• USD Bull Market: Only as long as we have

• ECB’s war on two fronts: EU tail risks and currency war

• Japan: Desperation time…

• Pop go the housing bubbles:

UK, Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Canada

• China’s reform is for real

USD Bull Market: Only as long as we have Fed normalization…?

ECB’s war on two fronts: EU tail risks and currency war

UK, Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Canada

� Fed: Do we make it to the first hike?

� ECB: eventual “Real” QE ?

Monetary Policy: A world of QE, with US exceptionalism?

� ECB: eventual “Real” QE ?

� BOJ: No, it won’t work this time,

either…

� SNB: countdown to negative rates?

� G10 Smalls: New QE entrants?

-> Sweden’s Riksbank paving the way-> Sweden’s Riksbank paving the way

� China to devalue?

: Do we make it to the first hike?

Monetary Policy: A world of QE, with US exceptionalism?

rates?

way…way…

US recovery still looks strong

ISM non

Weekly jobless claims

US recovery still looks strong

ISM non-manufacturing

Weekly jobless claims

Wage growth: the key to avoiding deflation

http://www.businessinsider.com/most-important-charts-in-the-world-q4-2014-10#jared-woodard-bgc-financial

Wage growth: the key to avoiding deflation

financial-23

Fed policy: will the future ever arrive?

September 2015 Fed Funds Future:

Fed policy: will the future ever arrive?

The “Dot Plot” of Sep 17 FOMC

Current marketexpectations Nov. 14

The “Dot Plot” of Sep 17 FOMC

USD bull – 44-year high

EURUSD: Head and Shoulders?EURUSD: Head and Shoulders?

USD Bull: Still early daysUSD Bull: Still early days

Possible to return to normality?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/10/31/2026422/qe-who-needs-ya-no-dont-answer-that/

Possible to return to normality?

that/

Can Markets Handle no QE?

-> Corporate Bonds and Stocks and the Fed

Can Markets Handle no QE?

> Corporate Bonds and Stocks and the Fed

“Solving the last crisis” and creating the next one.

Dodd-Frank, Volcker RuleDodd-Frank, Volcker Rule



Investment banks holding “less inventory”


Investment banks holding “less inventory”

Corporate Bonds – today’s subtoday’s sub-prime?

Corporate Bonds – leading indicator

USDJPY driver: Kuroda’s 2USDJPY driver: Kuroda’s 2nd big move…

Central Bank Balance Sheets

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2014/11/02/bank-of-japan-opens-the-floodgates/

Central Bank Balance Sheets

floodgates/

Kuroda must engineer financial repression…

-> Negative Real Rates

Negative real rates!

Kuroda must engineer financial repression…

> Negative Real Rates

Negative real rates!

In order to turn this around…

Japan’s tax revenues the same as 1986…

In order to turn this around…

Japan’s tax revenues the same as 1986…

Japan’s current accountJapan’s current account

Japan’s (and Germany’s!) population profile

Source: CIA World Factbook

Japan’s (and Germany’s!) population profile

Anatomy of a JPY volatility explosion

� BoJ promises massive asset purchases

� Domestic investors and GPIF dump domestic bonds buy domestic

stocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocksstocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocks

� Global equity investors see cheap Japanese equity valuation and

pumping asset prices – buy Japanese stocks and hedge their JPY

exposure

Back to the future: global asset markets go into tailspin and JPY is

the biggest, most consensus trade going, reversing from some

impossibly weak level.

USDJPY to 150 and then to 100?

Anatomy of a JPY volatility explosion

promises massive asset purchases

Domestic investors and GPIF dump domestic bonds buy domestic

stocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocksstocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocks

Global equity investors see cheap Japanese equity valuation and BoJ

buy Japanese stocks and hedge their JPY

: global asset markets go into tailspin and JPY is

the biggest, most consensus trade going, reversing from some

USDJPY to 150 and then to 100?

JPY still trading like in the old daysJPY still trading like in the old days

It’s about real rates (think financial repression)

150.00

USDJPY vs. US/Japan

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

60.00

70.00

USDJPY

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Bank Strategy & Research

It’s about real rates (think financial repression)

4.00

USDJPY vs. US/Japan real rates

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

-4.00

-3.00

US/Japan Real Interest Rate

EURUSD vs. Real Interest Rate Spread

1.70

EURUSD vs. EUR/US real rates

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

0.80

0.90

EURUSD


EURUSD vs. Real Interest Rate Spread

3.00

EURUSD vs. EUR/US real rates

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

-3.00

-2.00

EU/US Real Interest Rate

EURUSD driver: Central Bank Balance sheets

0.60

0.80

EURUSD vs. Fed/ECB Balance Sheet

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

-0.80

Fed/ECB ∆ of YoY Growth Rates


EURUSD driver: Central Bank Balance sheets

1.5000

1.5500

EURUSD vs. Fed/ECB Balance Sheet

1.2000

1.2500

1.3000

1.3500

1.4000

1.4500

1.1500

EURUSD

Portugal – an unbearable burdenan unbearable burden

EU’s pressing question: how is debt destroyed?

When Debt-to-GDP is unsustainable, five ways to reduce debt

1. Economic growth – grow the pie

2. Fiscal adjustment-austerity – (just don’t forget those multipliers)

3. Explicit (de jure) default or restructuring

4. Inflation surprise

5. Financial repression accompanied by a steady dose of inflation

Source: SocGen and IMF, Dec. 2013

Market thinks it’s 1 and 2 – but more likely going to be 3 and 5.

EU’s pressing question: how is debt destroyed?

GDP is unsustainable, five ways to reduce debt

(just don’t forget those multipliers)

Explicit (de jure) default or restructuring

Financial repression accompanied by a steady dose of inflation

but more likely going to be 3 and 5.

EU periphery… Convergence Trade Done: what now?EU periphery… Convergence Trade Done: what now?

Germany needs inflation/higher wages !Germany needs inflation/higher wages !

The great risks of QE:

Printing money = bubbles = deflation

- Leigh Skene, Lombard Street Research

Out of the “Balance Sheet Out of the “Balance Sheet

Recession“and into the “QE Trap”

- Richard Koo, Nomura Research Institute

The great risks of QE:

Printing money = bubbles = deflation

Leigh Skene, Lombard Street Research

Out of the “Balance Sheet Out of the “Balance Sheet

Recession“and into the “QE Trap”

Richard Koo, Nomura Research Institute

The great risk of QE: Everything mispriced

• Exercise makes a body stronger

• Real market and business volatility and

price discovery makes our markets and

economy stronger

• The opposite (current status quo) makes • The opposite (current status quo) makes

them weaker

The great risk of QE: Everything mispriced

Exercise makes a body stronger

Real market and business volatility and

price discovery makes our markets and

economy stronger

The opposite (current status quo) makes The opposite (current status quo) makes

them weaker

Next crisis: reality or new doses of intervention?

•

•

Next crisis: reality or new doses of intervention?

Next evolutionary step: Helicopter Money

to stimulate the economy directly (Overt

Monetary Financing)Monetary Financing)

We know where that ends…

EM tightening started a long time ago…

BrazilBrazilSouth AfricaTurkeyIndia

EM tightening started a long time ago…

China: Real Estate bubble is finishedChina: Real Estate bubble is finished

Xi Jinping’s intent on reform intent on reform – knows risks

China housing market correction for real

http://www.businessinsider.com/most-important-charts-in-the-world-q4-2014-10#wei-yao-societe-generale

China housing market correction for real

generale-67

China’s FX Reserves dropped >$100B in 1 month!China’s FX Reserves dropped >$100B in 1 month!

China CPI lowest in almost 5 yearsPI lowest in almost 5 years

China’s currency at record high

-> Countdown to devaluation?

JPYUSD

CNYUSD

China’s currency at record high – can’t afford it

> Countdown to devaluation?

If US recovery falters …

-> Currency Wars return with a vengeance

If US recovery falters …

> Currency Wars return with a vengeance

Nice sovereign balance sheets for “the G10 smalls”Nice sovereign balance sheets for “the G10 smalls”

• Australia• Canada• New Zealand• Norway• Sweden

Big little housing bubbles

Q: Where does private debt end up after housing bubbles pop?

A: As public debt…

Big little housing bubbles

Q: Where does private debt end up after housing bubbles pop?

China: $1.5 trillion in capital flight in last year alone?

Source: http://www.afr.com/p/national/how_chinese_fortunes_are_hidden_EQ7mBdl8pJh7Hy3q9aw6qO

China: $1.5 trillion in capital flight in last year alone?

Source: http://www.afr.com/p/national/how_chinese_fortunes_are_hidden_EQ7mBdl8pJh7Hy3q9aw6qO

US politics in an ice age until at least early 2017US fiscal policy on ice until at least 2017…US politics in an ice age until at least early 2017US fiscal policy on ice until at least 2017…

FX Trade Ideas for next 3-6 months:

• Long US dollar – for another 6 months or more

• Short JPY for now, but be careful...move may not last long

• Euro weakness largely priced in for near term?

• Short AUD and especially NZD vs. CAD

• EM trouble spots to return if US data improves long MXN long MXN

• Gold and silver – monetary madness has to mean a buy at some point

6 months:

for another 6 months or more

Short JPY for now, but be careful...move may not last long

Euro weakness largely priced in for near term?

Short AUD and especially NZD vs. CAD

EM trouble spots to return if US data improves – short TRY, ZAR,

monetary madness has to mean a buy at some

Chart: AUDUSD

Chart: NZDUSD

Thank youThank you























Disclaimer






resultados futuros.


aviso prévio.






Deflation: The Elephant in the room

Portugal, November 2015, Saxo Bank A/S

Deflation: The Elephant in the room

Portugal, November 2015, Saxo Bank A/S

How bad is it?How bad is it?

One Trading view:

Fixed income will outperform

US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015

A simple man’s view of the world

US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015

One Economic view:

Dis-inflation/deflation

sell-off

One Timing view:

Macro core view

Q2/Q3-2015 low in this

One guaranteed view:

Volatility will go SIGNIFICANTLY up….

outperform all assets. 10YR

US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015

A simple man’s view of the world

US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015

inflation/deflation will be catalyst for asset

this cycle for ALL indicators

:

go SIGNIFICANTLY up….

Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..

Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..

Watch November for big drop in US YieldsWatch November for big drop in US Yields

Low point getting closer: Q1/Q2 2015Low point getting closer: Q1/Q2 2015

The Economic Bermuda Triangle

Steen Jakobsen’s Economic Theory

The Economic Bermuda Triangle

s Economic Theory – Where is my Nobel Prize?

80/20-Principle

The Pareto principle (the law of the vital few,The Pareto principle (the law of the vital few,sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come

from 20% of the causes.

• 80% of all credit given to 20% listed companies and banks

• 20% of population owns 80% of wealth

• 80% of all jobs comes from Small-and Medium Sized companies

• 20 mio. SME’s in Europe alone (27 mio. in the US)

• 20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe • 20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe

• 80% economy needs growth to sustain 20%

• 80% return in SME’s vs. 20% in big companies next 5 years?

• ”Betting” on 20% will lead to 80% chance of Japanisation

Principle

law of the vital few, and the principle of factor law of the vital few, and the principle of factor ) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come

from 20% of the causes.[1][2]

80% of all credit given to 20% listed companies and banks

20% of population owns 80% of wealth

and Medium Sized companies

s in Europe alone (27 mio. in the US)

20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe 20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe

80% economy needs growth to sustain 20%

s vs. 20% in big companies next 5 years?

on 20% will lead to 80% chance of Japanisation

Where does growth go from here?Where does growth go from here?

European recovery European recovery – Where?

2015 also a total loss for growth?

450

500

Copper (3 mos lead)

and World growth

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

1-31-2006 1-31-2007 1-31-2008 1-31-2009 1-31-2010 1-31

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank

2015 also a total loss for growth?

4,00

6,00

Copper (3 mos lead)

and World growth

-4,00

-2,00

0,00

2,00

4,00

#N/A Field Not Applicable (lead 3 months)

World GDP (YoY %)

-6,00

31-2011 1-31-2012 1-31-2013 1-31-2014 1-31-2015

No defaults, no growth and no inflation means?No defaults, no growth and no inflation means?

Minsky momentMinsky moment

Final Notice: Credit is 75% of : Credit is 75% of growth

Deflation: The death of status quoDeflation: The death of status quo

US: Disinflation to deflation?

2,50

3,00

US 5Y and 10Y Breakeven

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

US Breakeven 5 Year (lead 0 months)

-1,00

-0,50US Breakeven 5 Year (lead 0 months)

US Breakeven 10 Year

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank

US: Disinflation to deflation?

2,50

3,00

US 5Y and 10Y Breakeven

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

-1,00

-0,50

US: Disinflation to deflation?US: Disinflation to deflation?

Inflation at low level = Economic damage

ECB – final round with DraghiDraghi and easy money?

The deflation ECB didn’t believe in…The deflation ECB didn’t believe in…

ECB keeps talking (& dreaming)ECB keeps talking (& dreaming)

Why are we copying Japanese model?Why are we copying Japanese model?

Europe’s internal devaluationEurope’s internal devaluation

European banking sector is still sick…..European banking sector is still sick…..

China and Japan

At opposite ends?

China and Japan

At opposite ends?

JAPAN QE Desperado – a very imprecise weapona very imprecise weapon

China is 5% growth next five years….China is 5% growth next five years….

Markets and RISKMarkets and RISK

US Real economy leads S&P?US Real economy leads S&P?

End of US supremacy?End of US supremacy?

Positions:• FI: Long US Fixed income – Sub 1.5000 in Q1/Q2

• FX: Short AUD, Short BRICS

• Equity: Neutral (25% allocation)

• Commodities: Short: Copper, Iron Ore vs. Long Aluminium

•Monetary Policy:• ECB: Deflation running away from ECB / No full blown QE possible

• BOJ: QE Infinite – what’s retiring deb? Desperation

• FED: Tapering will finalize. New expansion of balance sheet H2

• China will continue to slow – response?

Predictions 2015:• Recession in Germany(Euro area) & Near recession in the US

• Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1• Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1

• 2014 peak in US Dollar – 2015 US dollar will start secular weakning

• Small cap + SME’s will outperform 20% segment by 10%

• BRIC’s will collapse on non-reform

Macro Outlook in headlines

Sub 1.5000 in Q1/Q2

Commodities: Short: Copper, Iron Ore vs. Long Aluminium

ECB: Deflation running away from ECB / No full blown QE possible

what’s retiring deb? Desperation

FED: Tapering will finalize. New expansion of balance sheet H2-2015

Recession in Germany(Euro area) & Near recession in the US

Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1

2015 US dollar will start secular weakning

Small cap + SME’s will outperform 20% segment by 10%

Outragous Predictions 2015Outragous Predictions 2015

OP-

• UK House prices to drop 20%

• Draghi leaves ECB and becomes Italian President

• Russia goes bankrupt

• Biggest Vulcano eurupts -Bárðarbunga

Japan in recession• Japan in recession

• Corporate bond spreads explodes higher

• CNY devalues

-2015

Draghi leaves ECB and becomes Italian President

Bárðarbunga

Corporate bond spreads explodes higher

Thank youThank you

Apresentação Cornelius Luca - Banco Best...2014/11/07 · US

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Transcript of Apresentação Cornelius Luca - Banco Best...2014/11/07 · US