A Fábrica do Futuro.pdf

7/29/2019 A Fbrica do Futuro.pdf

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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show

October 2011 [email protected]

Dick MorleyOctober 2011

[email protected]

Who Am I?Who Am I?

Skier

Physics

PLC

NCMS

Harley-Davidson

25 childrenAngel

Machinist

My office

My commute


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The Real ProblemsThe Real Problems

Global competition

Time to market

Cost

Rapid growth

Continuous rapid

tech change

ProblemsProblems

Fashion / fads

Management demands /instant gratification

Change always

Blockers

Open / closed


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Technology Predictions:Technology Predictions:19541954 Popular MechanicsPopular Mechanics MagazineMagazine

Scientists from the RANDCorp have created thismodel to illustrate how ahome computer couldlooklike in the year 2004.However, the neededtechnology will not beeconomically feasible forthe average home. Withteletype interface and theFortran language, thecomputer will be easy touse.

Copyright 2007 Rockwell Automation, Inc. All rights reserved.

PredictionsPredictions

Japanese

1901

80 / 20

1901 / .593 (+)1901 / .593 (+)

Worldwide wireless telephone

Worldwide color photo instanttransfer

Rise of China, Japan & Africa

Round-the-world trip in 7days, global travel foreveryone

Warship in air

Air conditioner

Advanced voice transmitter,love talk over 10 miles

Picture telephone

Shopping by picture telephone

Electricity as fuel

Bullet train 2.5 hrs. betweenTokyo and Kobe

Electric needle treatment w/opain or medication

Automobiles w/o horse

Advanced education

Countrywide electricitydistribution


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1901 / .5931901 / .593 (cont).(cont).

Green Sahara

Extermination of flies & fleas

Cultivation by electricity oftropical plants in Greenland!

Worldwide railroad network

Natural disaster control

Extinct wild animals

Rubber tire trains in the airand underground

Everyone taller than 6 ft.

Future HistoryFuture History

I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers.

Thomas Watson, 1943

Computers in the future may weigh no more than 5 tons.

Popular Mechanics, 1949

But what is it good for?

Engineer at IBM commenting on the microchip, 1968

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in theirhome.

Ken Olson, 1977

640k ought to be enough for anybody.

Bill Gates, 1981

Predicting the FuturePredicting the Future

Weather forecasting

Science fiction

Delphi survey

Groundhog

Wild cards


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Cycles of GrowthCycles of Growth

1995 Predictions1995 Predictions

Japan as a financial center

Moore marches on

Gene splicing and dicing in wide use

NA a single economic entity

Mass production becomes digital and POS

Nuclear power returnsEducation in turmoil

Two hours to anywhere

CommunicationCommunication

RF

WWW

IT revolution

Bandwidth


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Bandwidth (BW)Bandwidth (BW) Time (PowerTime (Power

Law)Law)BW

Low HighRefresh

FedEx

CNN

WWW

Process

Reduce the NeedReduce the Need

iPad

Predictive

Autonomous

Industrial Bus HierarchyIndustrial Bus Hierarchy


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HistoryHistory ComplexityComplexity

Relays

Transistors

Minis

PLCs

Cells

MES / MRP

Tablets

States vs. behavior

Costs / ComplexityCosts / Complexity

HistoryCosts

Old

Technologies

Complexity

Counterproductive BusinessCounterproductive Business

PracticesPracticesLowering costs is the key toprosperity

Mass production lowerscosts

Corporate culture modifieshuman behavior

Management scienceexists?

The business book


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SimulationSimulation

Stagger through life

Virtual into realMy barn

Models and simulationPredictive

Postdictive

Understanding

Fun

EnergyEnergy

Innovations ComingInnovations Coming

Grid computing

Wireless / batteries

Virtual bandwidth

Quantum communications

Femto

CAD / CAM

3D mfg.

Point of sale processes


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Wild CardsWild Cards

No landline phonesNo landline phones all uplink satellitesall uplink satellites

59% of USA not working in

large companies

More SFI orgs for ed

Global population dispersion

Permanent Antarctic residents

PC reversal insurance andcrime not solved by wishes

Market lowers to6000 and then to

30,000 equiv in 2020

NASDAQ acceptsNASDAQ accepts

foreign companies...foreign companies...

solicits themsolicits them

Engineeringproductivitydoubles...notan art formanymore

Semiconductor

foundries at

individual

companies

Mechatronicsgains respect

Smartskin planes

Ink jet printed autos

for custom paint jobs

Spamming

Becomes positive

Beyond MMXXBeyond MMXX

Molecular computing

Quantum dots

ArtificialLife

Evolution

Behavior

Intelligence

What Manufacturers NeedWhat Manufacturers Need

Customer Base

Cost reduction?

Unfair advantage

Time to market

10x tech


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Challenges to ManufacturingChallenges to Manufacturing

Culture inhibitions

Top-down organizations

Fads and fashion

Hiring the obedient

Tiger BeetlesTiger Beetles

Run and stop

Info bandwidth

Bio model

Elmer / Bugs / binoculars

The TechnologyThe Technology

More impact than politicians

Has legs

Work defines tech changes work

Invention is the mother of necessity!Invention is the mother of necessity!


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YouYou

Must be able to innovate, adapt and understandyour customer

Must communicate with the user/owner

Must use left and right brain

Must have lots of luck

SummarySummary

Is Morley a nut?

Wake up call

Invention is the mother of success

Goals are the emergent property of process

The only way

to create wealth

is with new

technology!


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October 2011 morley@barn org

[email protected]

A Fábrica do Futuro.pdf

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