As Perspectivas de Combustíveis Líquidos Alternativos no Mundo

Seminário “Perspectivas Energéticas para América Latina”18 de Outubro de 2004 (UNICAMP)

Dr. Francisco Rosillo-CalleImperial College London(University of London)

RESUMO

• O papel da indústria do automóvel• Mudanças/implicações• Os grandes desafios• Cenários- ER• Cenários – transporte• Combustíveis principais no mundo• Gasolina, diesel, sintéticos, gás natural, etanol,

biodiesel, metanol, biogás, bio-óleo, hidrogênio, DME, ETBE, células combustíveis

The Role of the Automobile Industry/O papel das Montadoras

• Changes in alternative renewable transport fuels (RTFs) do not happen in a vacuum / As mudanças no sistema de combustíveis dependem de muitos fatores

• They are interrelated to the:– Automobile industry/ A indústria do automóvel– Developments in engine technology/Des.tec motores– Development in fuel technology /Des. tec. de

combustíveis– Availability and cost of fuels/ Disponibilidade e custos

de combustíveis– Social, economic, political….. changes

O Papel/….

• WE drive on industrially manufactured fuels. the tech is constantly improving under constant socio-econimic and enviromental pressures” / Nós usamos combustíveis industriais. Esta tecnologia muda constantemente, devido a pressões sociais, ambientais e econômicas”

• Environ. advantages of RTFs is not always sufficient

O Papel …

• The automobile industry is going through major changes/Grandes mudanças no setor

• Global dominance by a few/ Domínio mundial• Intensive competition/ Forte competição• Low margins on benefits or losses/ Margem de

benefícios é muito pequena• The industry has invested massively on oil-

based fuels/ Investimento pesado na área dos combustíveis fósseis

The top 10s/ As 10 primeiras em 2003

• GM 8.59 M units (185.5$B)• Toyota 6.78 (153.1$B)• Ford 6.54 (154.2$B)• VW 5.02 (98.4$B)• DaimerC 4.36 (171.9$B)• PSA/Peugeot 3.29 (61.2$B)• Hyundai 3.05 (38.9$B)• Nissan 2.97 (65.8$B)• Honda/ 2.39 (42.4$B)Renault

O Papel…• The industry make 60 M cars & trucks/yr /Produz

60 M de veículos/ano • In 1995 there were 600 M vehicles/ 600 M de

veículos em 1995• In 2010 there may be one billion / Podem ser um

bilhão em 2010• This posses major environmental problems/

Problema ambiental sério, com 0.5 M mortes/ano de acordo com a OMS

Os 4 desafios principais

• The Fuel Challenge/ O desafio dos combustíveis

• Urgent need to find environmentally cleaner fuels (be fossil-based or RTFs)/ Necessidade de usar combustíveis mais limpos

• At the moment there is not a clear winner/ • Which RTFs? Mais usual combustível?• Which criteria to select them? Que critério?• Most promising –ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic

fuels (fossil and biomass)/ Mais promissor• Hydrogen, fuel cells… longer term alternatives

O DESAFIOS...• The engineering challenge/ Desafio da engenharia• The IC engine has dominated the transportation

systems/ Domínio do motor CI• Urgent need to developed a more environmentally

friendly engine/ propulsions systems/ Necessidade de desenvolver novos sistemas para proteger melhor o meio ambiente

• IC will dominate next two decades/ O motor CI vai continuar a dominação nas próximas duas décadas– Promising innovation is the flex-fuel

• New propulsion systems (hydrogen) still require considerable RD&D/ Novos sistemas de propulsão vão demorar ainda muitos anos

OS DESAFIOS…• Environ. & Health Challenge/ Os desafios

ambientais e de saúde • Transport is responsible c30% CO2• Stringent environmental legislation/Maior

controle ambiental • Partial solutions/ Algumas soluções parciais:• Menos carros

– Improve the ICE/ Melhorar a eficiência – Use cleaner fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic (fossil

or biomass based)– Utilizar combustíveis menos poluentes

OS DESAFIOS….

• Structural/Market challenge/ O desafio das estruturas

• Some new fuels (e.g. hydrogen) require expensive infrastructure

• Others (ethanol, biodiesel) don’t and this is a major advantage

• Alguns dos combustíveis (o hidrogênio) necessitam de estruturas muito caras

SCENARIOS • Development of RE will affect new RTFs• O desenvolvimento dos RTFs está supeditado

ao desenv. das ER• RE can make a major contribution• EREC scenarios*

– Robust support RE = 50% energy (2040)– Significant support = 25%– (EREC takes into account only tech dev in RE, and

not in conventional energy- ela só considera os desenvolvimentos tecnológicos)

*Conselho Europeo das Energias Renováveis

Scenarios

2001 2010 2020 2030 2040World energy consumption MTOE

10,038 11,752 13,553 15,547 17,690

Biomass 1080 1291 1653 2221 2843Hydro L 223 255 281 296 308Hydro S 9.5 16 34 62 91Wind 4.7 35 167 395 584PV 0.2 1 15 110 445Solar T 4.1 11 41 127 274Solar TW

0.1 0.4

2 9 29

Scenario, Cont..

Geother 43 73 131 194 261

Tidal… 0.05 0.1

0.4

2 9

Total RE 1364 1683 2324 3416 4844

% RE 13.6 14.3 17.1 22.0 27.4

Scenarios

• RE provides (exclud trad biomass & hydro) 100 GW of grid connected electric

• Cumulative investment/ Inversões (1995-2003)= $85 B

• Wind/Eloica Power 40.3 GW (2003); 0.5% world electricity; 2008 = 95GW

• Germany = 14.6 GW (2003)• Spain = 6.4 GW• USA = 6.34 GW

Scenarios Transporte• Global estimates not quantified/O potencial

mundial não foi quantificado• Studies focussed on tech rather than economics

or social/Estudos sobre a questão tecnológica• Competition for other uses (electric, heat) makes

it difficult to determine the most effective use• Outros usos da biomassa dificulta qual o melhor

uso energético• Lack of an international market/ Falta de um

cartel internacional

Scenarios Transporte..

• Advanced Conversion tech• Key R&DD areas/ Áreas princípais de P&D

– Conversion of cellulose to sugars– Biomass conversion via gasification & thermal

chemical routes/ Gasificação, termo-química converção

– (ethanol, methanol, DME, synthetic fuels,- can be obtained from resulting gases)

– Pyrolysis to produce “bio-crude/bio-oleo”

Possible Fuel ChainsResources Conversion technology End-fuel End-use

Arable/Annual crops

Rape (Canola) seed Bio-Oil

Wheat

Maize Pressing/Esterification

Sugar Beet Bio-Diesel

PotatoesInternal combustion

Herbaceous perennials Hydrolysis/Fermentation engine vehicle

MiscanthusEthanol

Swithchgrass

Reed canary grass Fuel cell vehiclePyrolysis

Woody perennials

Short rotation willow / poplar Methanol

Pine / Spruce DME

Residues & wastes Gasification

Forestry residues Bio-Methane

StrawDigestion Hydrogen

Municipal solid/liquid waste

Waste fats and oils Battery vehicleCombustion

Electricity Trains

Non-Biomass RenewablesHydroWindSolar

Marine

Possible UK-based renewable transport fuel chains

Scenarios Transporte…

• Biofuel production (biocombustíveis) 120 BL (80 BL gasoline equiv) or 6% of world gasoline (2020)

• Other = 10% and 3% of diesel (ethanol from cane)

• 33-35% of gasoline (2050-2100)– Produced mostly in DLG/ Produtores países pobres– Consumed mostly in DVC/ Consumidores países

indústriais

COMBUSTÍVEIS PRINCIPAIS

• Gasoline & reformulated gasoline from crude oil

• Diesel oil & reformulated diesel from crude oil

• Synthetic fuels (from oil, coal, natural gas and biomass)

• Natural gas

Combustíveis, cont..

• Methanol from natural gas, coal, or cellulose material

• Ethanol from sugars/starches and cellulose

• Biodiesel from oil-containing plants• Hydrogen by electrolysis of water• Dimethyl-ether (DME) from natural gas Fuel cells (electric engines)

Production of Biomass Derived End-Fuels (Transport)

1. Biodiesel2. Ethanol3. Hydrogen4. Bio-oil5. Bio-gas6. Methanol7. DME8. Electricity

Combustíveis, cont…

• ETBE based on bioethanol• Biogas• Bio-dimethyl ether based on biomass or

biodegradable waste/resíduos, lixo

Combustíveis, cont..• The biofuels considered in the EU are:• Biodiesel (from rapeseed/carola,

sunflower/girassol, etc)• Bioethanol (sugar beet/beterraba, cereals, etc)• ETBE (based on bioethanol)• Biogas• Biomethanol (based on biomass or

biodegradable waste)• Biodimethylether (based on biomass or

biodegradable waste)

Combustiveis, cont…

• Gasoline/diesel- reformulated • R&D on these fuels is gathering pace/

Incremento rápido em P&D• These fuels quality is improving and will

develop, eventually, into even higher and cleaner fuels/ Melhora da qualidade dos combustíveis (gasolina e diesel)

• They would be able to compete with biofuels on an environmental basis

Combustiveis, cont…

• Synthetic fuels/ Combustíveis sintéticos • Synthetic fuels will become increasingly

important (alcohols, diesel and gasoline) Maior importância no futuro

• South Africa has been producing them for many years (oil, coal and natural gas) – 40% of total supply – New plants are coming on stream in USA, Malaysia– This has implications for biofuels

Combustíveis, cont…• Ethanol (bio) 2003• World 38+ Bl (13 countries/países)• Brazil 14.2 BL• USA 10.6 BL (circa)• EU c. 2.2 BL (incl. bioethanol-based ETBE+

Synthetic- incu ETBE a partir do álcool)• Others, c.2 BL• (Australia, Canada, Colombia, China, India,

Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, etc)• 35 countries interested

Combustíveis, cont…• Ethanol, cont.• World/Mundo =60-70 BL in 2012; 120 BL in

2020 (c.10% transport fuels)• Brazil 22 BL in 2012• USA 20 BL (2012)• EU 8-10 BL (2010)• Canada 1.33 BL 2010)• China 10 BL (2010?)• India 1.5 BL• LA/AL 3-5 BL (Peru 1.2 BL; Colombia, 1 BL..)

Combustíveis, cont…• Methanol• Used in the past/ Utilizado como combustível• Produced mostly from natural gas• Used as a building block for many applications• Production 47.3 BL (2000)• It is suitable for gas turbines and IC• Best candidate for fuel cells/Muito promissor

para uso em células combustíveis• Potential fuel demand 3.3 BL (2010)(American

Methanol Institute- www.methanol.org

Bio-methanolFeedstocks

Crops (Lignocellulosic)•Short Rotation Coppice•Long Rotation Forestry•Residues:

- Forestry - Agricultural

Other •Waste oils & fats?

Conversion Technology

Pilot Demonstration:• Oil stabilisation and use

Novel:• Catalytic upgrading of oil• New reactors and continued development of existing reactors

End-Fuel

•Raw bio-oil

•Stabilised bio-oil

•Upgraded bio-oil

End Use

•Hydrogen•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains

Vehicle IC Engine

Electricity ProductionVia turbine

(steam and / or ‘gas’)Fuel Cell

Gasification and syngas reformulation

Combustíveis, cont…

• Biodiesel• Rapid increase in recent years/Aumento

rápido nos anos recentes• EU = c2.5 BL (Germany= 1.3 BL)• Can be obtained from many sources• Many countries are considering biodiesel• Brazil can be a world leader

– Programa de biodiesel

Combustíveis, cont…

• Bio-crude/bio-oleo • Many potential applications/ Grande

potencial• Niche applications/Aplicações especiais• Unlikely use in transportation in large

scale/Uso em pequena escala

Combustíveis, cont…• Biogas• Large experience in non-transport applications• Used in niche markets (urban transport)• Many experiments • Can use same infrastructure than natural gas• Pode utilizar a mesma estrutura que o gás N• Small-scale applications/Usos em pequena

escala• Low calorific value/Baixo valor calorífico

Combustíveis, cont…

• Gás natural • Prime candidate for hydrogen/fuel cells• Clean fuel; increasing use• About 2 M vehicles worldwide (2004)

(CNG and LNG)– 130,000 in the USA(Natural Gas Vehicles Coalition)

Combustíveis, cont…• Dimethyl ether (DME)• Advantage: can be made from any carbonaceous

feedstock (N gas, coal, biomass) using established technologies/DME pode-se conseguir do gás N, carvão mineral, biomassa.. com tecnologias existentes

• Current global production= 150,000 t/y + 1.8 Mt under construction

• Major interests:– Russia- from N gas in Siberia– China- from coal (cooking/cozinha, transport)– Iran (0.8 Mt, export for LPG/GLP);

DME (Dimethyl Ether)Feedstocks

Crops (Lignocellulosic)• Short Rotation Coppice• Long Rotation Forestry• Residues:

- Forestry - Agricultural

Other • Wastes (MSW)

Conversion Technology

Advanced Gasification and syngas reformulation

Novel:• Still in R&D stage

End-Fuel

•DME as diesel extender / modifier

End UseVehicle

Internal Combustion Engine

Combustíveis, cont…

• Ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE)• Made by reacting ethanol with natural gas and

petroleum derivatives to produce a clean-burning fuel additive/Produzido a partir da reação de etanol com o GS, e outros derivados do petróleo para a produção de um aditivo limpo

• ETBE is approx. 42% ethanol• ETBE is favoured in the EU• MTBE is facing difficulties

Combustíveis, cont…

• Hydrogen • Considered as the ultimate fuel/ O mais

promissor para células combustíveis• Hydrogen from ethanol• Many problems • Infrastructure • 20 years away in large scale

HydrogenFeedstocks

Crops (Lignocellulosic)• Short Rotation Coppice• Long Rotation Forestry• Residues:

- Forestry - Agricultural

Other • Renewable Electricity• Wastes (MSW)

Conversion Technology

Gasification and syngas reformulationElectrolysis

Pilot Demonstration:• Fuel Cell Vehicles• CHP systems

Novel:• Infrastructure development• ??

End-Fuel

•Hydrogen

End Use

•Hydrogen•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains

Vehicle Fuel Cell

Electricity ProductionVia turbine

(steam and / or ‘gas’)Fuel Cell

Main References• www.erec-renewables.org • www.biodiesel.at • www.methanol.org • www.economist.com/surveys/ • Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21stC,

Worldwatch Inst. Paper 169 (May 2004• Sawin J L (2004) Thematic Background Paper 3, Int.

Conf. RE, Bonn, June 1-4• Fulton L (2004) Biofuels for Transport- An International

Perspective, IEA• Zervos A, Lins C, Schafer O (2004) Tomorrow’s World,

REW 7:4: 238-245

Finalmente…• Não é fácil dar resposta a uma questão muito

complexa como é o futuro dos combustíveis no setor do transporte.

• Muitos avanços técnicos são ainda necessários e muitas mudanças sociais, políticas e ambientais…

• No futuro os combustíveis podem ser muitos, mas o petróleo vai dominar ainda por várias décadas

• MUITO OBRIGADO PELA SUA ATENÇÃO!