Paulo Nobre, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, A. P. Aguiar, S. C. Chou, V. B. Capistrano, P. Kubota, M. Baptista Jr., E. Giarolla, M. Bottino, D. S. Moreira, S. Nilo, D. Alvin, J. Pendharkar, J. P. Bonatti, A. Silva, E. Ramirez, T.

Tarasova, F. Pesquero, M. H. Costa, G. Sampaio, M. Cardoso, C. Augusto Jr, H. C. Soares, F. Casagrande, F. Odorizi, A. A. de Castro, A. D. Nobre, A. Cuartas, A. Lanfer, C. A. Nobre

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE

Conferência INCT-MC, FAPESP, 30 de Setembro de 2016

The Challenge:• To build an Earth System Model in Brazil, from state of

the art component models in the nation and abroad:

1. To incorporate expert knowledge (e.g. the LBA program) about ocean-ice-atmosphere-biosphere interactions of relevance to Brazil;

2. To provide the scientific foundations of global climate change scenarios for mitigation and adaptation policies to climate change in Brazil;

3. To contribute to form a new generation of modeling-capable earth system scientists in the nation.

Our Goal for INCT-MC Earth System Modeling Project

BESM-LuccME-EtaClimate Forecast System

MOM5

OGCM

IC

Coupled Forecast

GFDL’S

FMScoupler

GFDL’s

MOM5OGCM

CPTEC’s

AGCMF90 mpi

GFDL’s

SISMarine Ice

CCST’s

INLANDSfc Model

TOPAZbiogeochemistryCO2

N, P, K

SST

U, VIce &

Albedo

Sfc Fluxes

Prec

Temp,

Winds

HeatF

P-E

Winds

HeatF

Lprec, Snow,

SolarRad, T, U, V

Prec,

Temp,

HeatFSST

Albedo

Chemistry

Aerosol

THMB

Hydrology

AGRO

Agriculture

FIRE

Forest Fire

Initialization

Winds

Solar

NCEP’S

Analises

CPTEC’s

AGCMF90 mpi

T, S

MOM5

OGCM

Atmos

Obs

Coupled

Initialization

hourly

Coupled

Timestep

Eta

Regional

Atmos

Regional Products

LuccME

Land Use

LuccME Schematic

INLAND Schematic

BESM

LuccME

Eta

LuccME-INLAND Results

LuccME ScenarioINLAND Simulation 2005-2050Land Use off, Fire off Land Use on, Fire on

RIVER ICE

BioChemistry Predictability

Fire

Hydrology Land Use

RIVERS

H2O

Heat

CO2

Trace Gases

Particles

2080-2099 A1B 2080-2099 A1B

LAND (INLAND – INPE/CCST)

ATMOSPHERE (INPE/CPTEC)

OCEAN (MOM5 – NOAA/GFDL)

ATMOS Chem-Aerosol (MOZART-MAM/NCAR)

FMS COUPLER

CO2

Co

urt

esy: P

au

lo N

ob

re

BESM Component Models

BESM DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

(i) full use of CPTEC’s experience and sub-models

(ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad

– Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building-block

– Use GFDL/FMS coupler to add components: • Dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle;

• Continental hydrology-ocean coupling;

• Ocean carbon cycle;

• Sea ice;

• Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols.

One-Model: From extreme weather to Global Climate Change Scenarios

Extreme Events Hit Brazil

T666L96

T213L64

T126L42

T062L28

Surface Temperature Trend in Brazil

BESM2.5 CMIP5 Runs 1850-2100Air Temperature at 2m

Courtesy: V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

HISTORICAL

Atlantic Meridional Mode

SST, Taux, Tauy Joint EOF1

BESM2.5 historical run (11.4%)ERSSTv4 (9.3%)

Courtesy: S. Veiga, INPE/PGMET

BESM Historical Run

BESM RCP Runs

RCP8.5 RCP4.5

BESM SCENARIOS via ESGF

BESM CMIP5 Scenarios on theEarth System Grid Federation - ESGF

Brazil

Courtesy: W. Mendes, INPE/BESM

BESM-OA2.5 Global Average SST

300 year run

Abrupt4xCO2 - piControl

INPE/BESM 2.5 NCAR/CCSM 4

GFDL/CM 2.1 MOHC/HadGEM2-ES

Sou

rce:

Cap

istr

ano

et

al (

20

15

) in

pre

par

atio

n

BESM abrupt4xCO4 Temperature

BESM abrupt4xCO4 Precipitation

ERA interim REANALISYS BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1

BESM UPPER LEVEL FLOW

Cloud Cover Parameterization in BESM & Amazon Rainfall-Circulation

GPCP BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1

Bottino and Nobre (2015), Submitted to Climate Dynamics

BESM Atlantic ITCZ simulations

ERAI

NCCS (bias = -1.72; rmse = 2.95)

CTRL (bias = -4.38; rmse = 5.11)

V at 10 m (m/s): 5N 30W +/- 2

ITCZ Meridional Migration

Bottino and Nobre (2015), Submitted to Climate Dynamics

Super Typhoon Haiyan 2014

24 h FCST CPTEC-AGCM (T666L64)

CPTEC T666L64 24h FCST TRMM RAINFALL OBS

Courtesy: Silvio N. Figueroa, INPE/CPTEC

MOM5

CPTEC AGCM4.1

T10m, v10m q10m

SST & albedo

BESM2.6

FMS

SST Control

Rainfall Control

BESM2.7 (2016-17) – under construction

VEGETATION: IBIS <INLAND>

HIDROLOGY: THMB <HAND>

MOM5: KPP <GISSVM>

MOM5: TOPAZ, SIS

SPECTRAL DYNAMICS: Semi_Lagrangian (<=25km) Eulerian (>25km)

S-L RADIATION: RRTMG

Cloud MICROPHYSICS: Ferreir-1MDeep CONVECTION Grell

CHEMIMSTRY: <MOZART> AEROSSOLS: <MAM>

PBL: dry MY2.0; moist Park

ATMOSPHERE

LAND OCEAN

FMS COUPLER

International Cooperation

BESMINPE, UFV, USP, UFSM

NASA/GISSUSA

IAPChina

CSIRSouth Africa

NOAA/GFDLUSA

IITMIndia

WHRCUSA

IISCIndia

NCARUSA

FUNDING AGENCIES

BESM

MCTIC/CNPq/Rede CLIMA

MCTIC/PNUD

MCTIC/INPE

MCTIC/FINEP

MCTIC/CNPq/INCT-MC

CAPES/ANA

MCTIC/CNPq/IBAS

FAPESP/PFPMCG

BESM PRODUCTS

ENSO FCST

M.Sc.Thesis

CMIP6 Scenarios

CMIP5 Scenarios

Seasonal Climate FCSTs

Ph. D. Dissertations

Dynamical Extended FCST

ESM capabilities for

Universities

BESM

Concluding Remarks

• BESM-OA fully coupled global model has been completed, allowing Brazil to inaugurate its participation in the CMIP5 global climate change model intercomparison project.

• Next steps: Developing BESM into a Full ESM, with dynamical vegetation, continental hydrology and atmospheric chemistry-aerosol, toward CMIP6.

Atmosphere Ocean Surface

Aerosols & Chemistry

Silvio N. FigueroaJosé P. BonattiPaulo KubotaEnver RamirezPablo ReynesJosé Pesquero

BESM Science Team

Débora AlvimJayant Pendharkar

Paulo NobreEmanuel Giarolla

Andre LanferHelena Soares

Raquel L. MelloVinícius B. Capistrano

Gilvan SampaioManoel CardosoMarcos SanchesAdriana LuzAntono. D. NobreCarlos Guimarães Jr.Marcos Costa (UFV)

ProjectManagement

Paulo Nobre (PI)Manuel BaptistaBianca AntunesFelipe Odorizi

Graduate Students

Mabel C. CostaSandro Veiga

Fernanda CasagrandeWendel Max

Foto

: co

rtes

ia d

e A

nto

nio

No

bre Thank you!

Muito Obrigado!