LBA - Prof. Paulo Artaxo
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Apresentação da 1º conferência de imprensa do módulo "Descobrir a Amazônia - Descobrir-se Repórter 2013"
Transcript of LBA - Prof. Paulo Artaxo
• Como a Amazônia funciona como uma entidade regional? (p. ex. ciclo
água, ciclo carbono, nutrientes, radiação, biologia, dimensões sociais,
etc.)
• Como as mudanças no uso da terra e no clima afetam as funções
biológicas, químicas e físicas da Amazônia, incluindo a sustentabilidade
da região e a influência da Amazônia no clima regional e global?
Questões científicas originais do LBA
SISTEMA FÍSICO-CLIMÁTICO:
Água e Energia
ARMAZENAMENTO
E TROCAS
DE CARBONO
QUÍMICA ATMOSFÉRICA
BIOGEOQUÍMICA:
Gases-Traço e
Nutrientes
HIDROLOGIA SUPERFICIAL
E QUÍMICA DA ÁGUA
USOS DA TERRA/COBERTURA VEGETAL
DIMENSÕES HUMANAS
Water (in clouds and biosphere)
Nutrients (P, N, K, others)
Carbon
Nitrogen (Vegetation and soil)
Aerosols (and trace gases)
Anthropogenic activities
The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere
Experiment in Amazonia - LBA
Susceptibility and
expected reaction to
stresses of global
climate change as
well as pollution
introduced by future
regional economic
development are not
known or quantified
at present time.
Amazonia has strong coupling between terrestrial ecosystem and the hydrologic cycle: The linkages
among carbon cycle, aerosol life cycle, and cloud life cycle need to be understood and quantified.
Conceptual overview of terrestrial carbon cycle –
chemistry – climate interactions
Arneth et al., 2011
Aerosols, radiation, clouds and greenhouse
gases in the global climate system
The major uncertainties in the climate system
Aerosol and cloud lifecycles
Agricultural expansion and climate
variability have become important
agents of disturbance in the
Amazon basin. There are some
signs of a transition to a
disturbance-dominated regime.
These signs include changing
energy and water cycles in the
southern and eastern portions of
the Amazon basin.
Interactions between global
climate, land use, fire,
hydrology, ecology and human
dimensions.
Forcing factors are indicated with
red ovals; processes addressed in
this Review are indicated by green
boxes and arrows; and
consequences for human society
are indicated by blue boxes with
rounded corners
The hydrologic Amazon basin is demarcated by a thick blue line; isopleths of mean daily precipitation during
the three driest months of the year97 (in mm; white lines) are overlain onto four land-cover classes.
Climatic gradient across the Amazon
basin
Diversity of soils of the Amazon forest region Quesada et al. 2011 Biogeosciences
Abordagem integrada de observações
de mudanças climáticas globais
µm
dm
ha
10 km
1000 km
Verificação de processos
Previsão integradora
The biology of the forest partially controls the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere in Amazonia
Strong interactions between forest biology, physics and chemistry of the atmosphere
Artaxo et al., 2013 Life in clouds: Bacteria, spores, fungus, etc
Life is in the air and it does interact with precipitation
• Algae/ Protozoa
observed in cloud water samples
• Protozoa were alive and moving
Species observed
in cloud water.
Slide 17
Manaus-K34
Fazenda NS Aparecida
Reserva Jarú
Pantanal
Flona-Santarém
Caxiuana
Brasilia-Cerrado
Torres de medidas do
Experimento LBA
Balanço de carbono na Amazônia
1- Richey et al., 2002; 2- Melack et al., 2004; 3 -Rasera et al., unpublish data; 4- Johnson et al., 2006; 5- Telles et al.,2003; 6- Ometto et al., 2005; 7- Houghton et al., 2000; 8- Morison et al.,2000; 9- Putz & Junk, 1997; 10- Wissmar et al., 1981
The average gross primary productivity (GPP) of
the land surface, over the period 1998–2005. Units
of GPP here are g m-2. 100 g m-2 = 1 Mgha-1. (Beer
et al. 2010)
Gross primary productivity (GPP)
Full carbon cycle for a mature
tropical forest in Amazonia
(Caxiuanã, Brazil).
All units are Mg C ha-1
year-1. (Malhi, 2012)
Estimates of Amazonian greenhouse-gas
emissions
Estimates of annual, basin-wide greenhouse-gas fluxes described in the text are presented together here,
in a common currency of Pg CO2-equivalents, using 100-year global warming potentials for CO2 (black),
CH4 (red) and N2O (purple).
Pg CO2-equivalents
Davidson et al., 2012
Response to interannual drought
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10
20
30
0
100
200
For
est
Phot
osynt
hesis
(Mg
C h
a-1 y
r-1)
El Nino Drought
Hadley modeled GPP & precip in central Amazonia in years relative to El Nino drought
Model-Predicted Response
(Jones et al.,
2001)
Years: -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Precip
(mm m
o-1)
Empirical Test: the 2005 drought
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite precip anomalies in 3rd quarter 2005
(Saleska et al., Science, 2007)
Florestas intactas são resistentes a secas
sazonais, mas começam a morrer depois de
alguns anos sucessivos de secas seguidas. Nepstad et al (2007), Ecology, Fisher et al. (2007), Global Change Biology, Brando et al (2008),
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Sotta et al. (2008), Global Change Biology
Experimento de exclusão de chuvas em Caxiuanã e Santarem
Rio Negro mean water levels (m) at Manaus-AM during drought years
1963
2010
2005
Lowest levels at Manaus
Two strong droughts in 2005 and 2010: Variability of Rio Negro during drought
years
Annual aboveground biomass change during
the 2005 interval.
Effect of the 2005
drought in the
carbon balance
in Amazonia
Phillips et al. 2009 Science
Drought sensitivity
of the Amazon
Rainforest
Spatial patterns of standardized anomalies of
normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and
enhanced vegetation index (EVI).
Drought of 2010 in Amazonia
Manaus river level for 2005 and 2010
Xu et al., GRL 2011
Medidas de Fluxos de CO2 por Eddy Correlation 20 m above canopy height
11 m above ground (stem space)
gas analyser ;
data acquisition
vacuum
pump
Opaque T
eflon tube (
65m
)
capillary
inlet cone+ filter
ultrasonic
anemometer
53 m
data
transfe
r line
11m
1m
mean canopy
height ~ 33 m
1m above forest floor
NOEL KEMPFF 2001,6,7
TAMBOPATA 2002,3,5,6,7,8
Bogi 2002,7
IQUITOS 2001,5,6,8 MANAUS
2002,5,6
CAXIUANA
2002,4,5,6,7,8
BRAGANCA
2002
TAPAJOS 2003 Jatun Sacha 2002,7
Pan-Amazon Coverage Field Campaigns 2001-2008 in permanent plots
ACRE
2003 SINOP 2002
SAN CARLOS
2004,6 JARI 2003
MOCAMBO
2003
EL DORADO
2004
Andes Transect 2003,6,7,8
RIO GRANDE
2004
AGUA PUDRE
2004,5,6
Alta Floresta 2002,8
Cusco Amazonico
2003,6,8
ZAFIRE
2005,6,7,8
Mabura Hills
2006
Jenaro Herrera 2005,6,7
Dois Irmaos
2003,6
Tiputini 2002,7
Sacta 2006 BEEM 2006
Porongaba
2003,6
LORENA
2004,6
Nouragues
2008
Nova Xavantina 2008 Los Amigos 2008
Pasco 2008
Biomass trend, 123 RAINFOR plots 1980-2004
Gain = 0.93+0.30 t ha-1 a-1
RAINFOR, unpublished data
Above-Ground Wood Production (t C ha-1
year-1
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
JE
N-0
6
CY
B-0
1
JE
N-0
9
HC
C-2
1
MN
U-0
4
CU
Z-0
4
JA
S-0
3
YA
N-0
1
CU
Z-0
3
PA
K-0
3
TA
M-0
4
BC
I-50
MN
U-0
3
JA
S-0
2
LS
L-0
2
SU
C-0
2
ALP
-22
CE
L-1
5
ELD
-03
TA
M-0
5
MN
U-0
6
TA
M-0
7
LIN
-01
NO
R-0
1
MN
U-0
1
RIO
-01
PA
K-0
2
CR
P-0
1
TA
P-0
2
BN
T-0
7
TIP
-03
BN
T-0
5
TA
M-0
2
TA
P-0
1
BN
T-0
4
TA
P-0
3
JE
N-1
0
SC
R-0
2
LS
L-0
1
BC
I-01
BD
F-0
1
BD
F-1
0
BD
F-1
4
BD
F-0
9
CA
X-0
2
BD
F-1
3
BD
F-1
2
SC
R-0
1
SC
R-0
3
Site
Gro
wth
Venezuela
Brazil
N PeruS Peru
Bolivia
Guyanas
Ecuador
RAINFOR - Above - ground
wood production for 97 sites
Malhi et al, in prep
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Distance from Andes (km)
So
il p
H
Savanna
Seasonal
Forest
Rainforest
Source: Malhi et al., Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change induced dieback of the Amazon
rainforest, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011 submitted
Linking biomass with precipitation in Amazonia:
A rainfall biogeography of Amazonia
Seca de 2005: Biomass trend, 57 RAINFOR plots 2005
Loss = xxxxx0.93+0.30 t
ha-1 a-1
RAINFOR, unpublished data
Amazonia is critical
for water vapor
transport over South
America
José Marengo, CST, INPE
Fluxo de umidade da Amazônia ao Sul do Brasil: Quanto? Quais processos controlam este fluxo?
Emissões de queimadas: A questão chave...
Where and when does biomass
burning occur?
The seasonality of fires derived from MODIS by Giglio et al. (2006).
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
77/8
8*
88/8
9
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
De
sflo
resta
tio
n (
km
² p
er
ye
ar)
Deforestation in Amazonia 1977-2011 in km² per year
* annual average per decade
27.000 Km²
in 2004
Redução do
desmatamento na
Amazônia:
de 27.000 Km² em 2004 a
6.200 Km² em 2011
6.200 Km²
em 2011
Que políticas públicas são mais eficientes para continuar esta redução?
“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in
Copenhagen COP-15)
Copenhagen Commitment: Reduction in 80% emissions from deforestation
in 2015 from 2004. Same target in the Brazilian law passed in Congress.
56
24
12
5
3
Deforestation AgrobusinesEnergy+Transport IndustryLandfills
Brazilian Greenhouse Gases Emission Inventory for 2005
MCT February 2010
Amazonia: 3 different types of aerosols Biogenic (primary and SOA) Biomass Burning Dust from Sahara
Each with VERY different properties and impacts Size: from 1 nanometer to 10 micrometers
Com centenas de milhares de focos de
incêndio na Amazônia a cada ano…
• Efeitos severos na saúde da população
• Efeitos climáticos
• Alterações no funcionamento do
ecossistema
Distribuição de aerossóis
em larga escala na
Amazônia: Efeitos fortes no balanço de
radiação e nos mecanismos de
formação de chuvas
CO strong increase from July to August 2010
(total CO column from AIRS)
Distribuição Global de Monóxido de Carbono (CO)
Aerosol Optical Thickness
550 nm
Solar Radiation
at surface (W m-2)
Continental scale effects Karla Longo and Saulo Freitas, INPE/CPTEC
Efeitos dos aerossóis provenientes de queimadas
no ciclo hidrológico da Amazônia
Vapor de água Partícula de aerossol
atuando como núcleo de
condensação de nuvens
Condições
termodinâmicas da
atmosfera
Processos altamente não lineares
Vapor de água global na atmosfera
Nuvens Pyrocumulus
Nuvens do Oceano Verde
Ciclo hidrológico crítico para a Amazônia.
Diffusion
Nucleation
Coalescence
*
* Crystal
collection
SO2
SO4-
Evaporation
* * *
*
Crystal shattering
Collection Aerosol
particles, cloud
condensation
nuclei and
precipitation
Aerosols Soluble: Nitrates, DON, NH3, NH4+ , etc…
Terra and Aqua satellite images
of the east Amazon basin, 11
August 2002. (A) The clouds
(Terra, 10:00 local time) are
beginning to form. (B) The
clouds (Aqua, 13:00 local time)
are fully developed and cover
the whole Amazon forest
except for the smoke area. The
boundary between forest and
Cerrado region is marked in
white on both images, and the
seashore is marked in green.
(From Koren et al., 2004)
Supressão da formação de
nuvens na Amazônia
devido às emissões de
queimadas
Supressão de nuvens baixas por aerossóis na Amazônia
Cloud fraction as function of aerosol optical depth (OD). The cloud fraction decreases almost linearly with increasing OD. The
red and blue curves denote the average of east and west areas, respectively. On average, the cloud fraction decreases to less
than 1/8 of the cloud fraction in clean conditions when OD = 1. The shaded area represents the relative area covered by the
respective OD, with the integral of this curve equal to one, representing the total Amazon basin. (from Ilan and Kaufman, 2003)
Cloud top pressure (P) vs. AOD
Relationships between cloud properties
and aerosol loading in Amazonia
Koren et al., Science 2008
Microphysics
absorption effects
Cloud fraction vs. AOD.
Rain rate (TRMM) versus Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS)
13:30 local-time map of rain rate (R) and the observed trend with aerosol loading in four selected regions.
Period: July and August 2007. b, The average R values are plotted for six aerosol-loading sets (blue,
including zero R grid squares; red, without zero R grid squares). Note the R intensification as a function of
AOD in all cases.
Satyamurty et al., 2010
Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon 1925-2008 (18 stations):
Decreasing at Pará and Amazon states?
Annual
Wet
Dry
Satyamurty et al., 2010
Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon 1925-2008:
increasing?
Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon 1925-2008: whole region
Satyamurty et al., 2010
No biomass burning smoke Heavy biomass burning smoke
Annual
Wet
Dry
Temperature
CO2 Concentration
Photosynthesis BVOC emissions
Aerosol Concentration
+
+
+
+ +
+?
-
Aerosol effects on
the Net Plant Productivity
Kulmala et al., 2004
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
-30
-20
-10
0Wet Season - NEE increase: 24 %
NE
E (
µm
olm
-2s
-1)
Relative Irradiance
Dry Season - NEE increase: 46 %
Amazonia Rondonia Forest site 2000-2001
Fortes efeitos dos aerossóis na fotossíntese
Increase in aerosol loading
Slide 57
Slide 58
Perfis verticais de retroespalhamento atenuado noturnos (em km-1sr-1) obtidos através do satélite CALIPSO mostram o transporte de areia do deserto do Saara para a região amazônica. Os eixos de perfil de vertical mostram até 5km de altitude ( Yuval et. al, in press).
Transporte de poeira do Saara para a Amazônia durante o experimento AMAZE
Slide 59
Range-corrected lidar signals
Complex vertical layering of dust
and smoke up to 5.5 km height
was observed over Praia, Cape
Verde, on 3 February 2008. (top).
An homogeneous layer was
observed in Manaus Feb. 10.
(bottom)
Raman Lidar
observations of
aerosols on Cape
Verde and Manaus
Ansmann et al., GRL 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
Al
(ng
/m3)
SFU - Al Concentration
Fine Coarse
Sahara Dust Transport
0
200
400
600
800
Si (n
g/m
3)
SFU - Si Concentration
Fine Coarse
0
10
20
30
Ti
(ng
/m3)
SFU - Ti Concentration Fine Coarse
Al, Si and Ti elemental Concentration for fine and coarse mode aerosols Feb. to September
Mudanças ambientais na Amazônia
Secas Queimadas
Desmatamento Mudanças Globais
Frequencia de queimadas variavel (Nepstad et al., 2006) Secas podem se tornar mais frequentes
(Cox et al., 2008 Nature)
Temperaturas aumentaram 0.8 graus (Victoria, 2005)
18% da área original da floresta foi desmatada
Slide 62
LUCC
Fire Climate Change
Climate Extremes
Complex Earth System Models are needed to study
all these interacting and simultaneous drivers
Nobre et al., 2011
Effects of climate change in
Amazonia
Land Use Change Logging/Deforest
Secondary Drivers
Primary Drivers
Environmental Drivers of Change
Climate Change: CO2,temperature,
rainfall
Droughts Forest Fires
Forest Degradation
Tree Mortality
Ecosystem Responses
Savannization/ forest dieback
“Secondarization” Short term
Long term
What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to a suite of environmental drivers of change?
Carlos Nobre, CCST, INPE, 2012
Tropical Ecosystems feedbacks and responses
1. How will tropical ecosystems respond to increasing temperatures, increasing CO2 concentrations, and altered rainfall?
2. Will climate change increase natural disturbance events and mortality?
3. What are the interactions of climate change with aerosol and particulate emissions from tropical forests?
4. How will forest-climate interactions respond to anthropogenic disturbance and land-use change?
Nepstad et al., PTRSB 2008
Cenários de uso da terra na Amazônia em 22 anos…
Anomalias de Precipitação (mm/day)-DJF- [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)]
Anomalias de Temperaturas (C) DJF - [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)]
Seco
Seco Seco
Seco
A2 B2 Cenário B2 Cenário A2
A2 B2 B2 A2
Quente Quente
Jo
sé
Ma
ren
go
, IN
PE
/CP
TE
C
Nature, 29 July 2010
Nature, 29 July 2010
Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere?
Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions for other countries
Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere:
aerosol and ozone production, precursor sensitivity and transport
Kuhn et al., ACPD 2010
Downwind of Manaus
•111 by 60.8 km represented by this box.
•Wind speeds at 1 km altitude are typically 10 to 30 kph.
•T2→T3 transit time of 2 to 6 hr.
Iranduba site
Interactions of the Manaus plume across 60 km
forest
“ARM Mobile Facility in Amazônia” (AMFA2014/5)
January 2014 , T3
75
1
2
3
MANAUS
Experimentos de grande escala de aerossóis e gases de
efeito estufa (SAMBBA), Setembro de 2012
Estudo muito completo da
distribuição de gases de efeito
estufa, aerossóis e fluxos
radiativos, com medidas in-situ e
modelagem detalhada. Parceria:
INPE, USP, INPA, UK Met Office.
O sítio experimental do projeto ATTO será
composto de uma torre muito alta (300 m),
ladeada por quatro torres de fluxos
menores. O sítio experimental será
estabelecido perto de Balbina.
Torre de
300 metros
ATTO Footprint
C. Gerbig MPIBGC
Amazonian Tall Tower Observatory
ATTO – 320 meters Long term broad
objectives observatory
Four flux towers with
85 meters already in
operation at the ATTO
site
Measurements at 6 levels for
Ozone, CO, VOCs (PTR-MS),
aerosol number size
distribution, composition with
ACSM, Light scattering (TSI
Neph), light absorption using
MAAP, Aethalometer, SP2),
CO2, CH4, water vapor and
others.
• O IPCC NÃO faz ciência. É somente um compilador de trabalhos publicados na literatura científica...
- A confusão sobre o papel do IPCC (quando é positivo, sem destaque; quando é negativo, IPCC errou etc.)
• A recorrência ao termo "vilão" do aquecimento e de tudo...
• - A confusão na divulgação de dados sobre desmatamento na Amazônia (que aí é problemático por parte dos órgãos de pesquisa também);
• - "Ceticismo" climático é termo inadequado. Na verdade são “negacionistas”, o que é muito diferente. Há muito espaço dedicado os "céticos“, porque dá IBOPE, em geral sem suporte científico. Esta postura mais "desinforma" do que informa.
Tópicos frequentes na mídia em relação às mudanças globais
“As previsões sobre o aumento do nível do mar --o IPCC (o painel da ONU para o clima) previa até 59 centímetro em cem anos-- talvez tenham de ser revistas, diz ele. Especialmente porque a Groenlândia é uma das
grandes vilãs da elevação do nível dos mares”.
Em 2007, o IPCC tinha causado polêmica ao estimar mais degelo do que o real. O
órgão dizia que o gelo do Himalaia sumiria até 2035 --em 2010, o IPCC voltou atrás.
“O painel de cientistas errou feio”
Obrigado pela atenção!!
Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere:
ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load
Kuhn et al., ACPD 2010
Obrigado pela atenção !!!
In Amazonia, the linkages are crucial
Schematic of land-surface-atmosphere
Meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, ecosystem function, radiation, etc. all
very linked (Betts et al. 2011)
Seca de 2005: efeitos não esperados no
ecossistema amazônico
precipitation anomaly vegetation “greenness” anomaly
Efeitos no ecossistema das
emissões de queimadas,
incluindo material particulado e
ozônio. Efeito na saude da
população das emissões de
queimadas. Tratamento da
questão de poluição
transfronteiriça. INCT-MG
Cloud Microphysics
PRECIPITATION
CCN Activation
Cloud/Aerosol Radiative Transfer
AEROSOLS
Ice Nuclei Activation
Aerosol Wet Removal
Aerosol-cloud-precipitation feedbacks
Cloud Dynamics
CCN = cloud condensation nuclei and IN = ice nuclei.
