Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros

diretosUma introdução quantitativa baseada

no International Trade Statistics (WTO) e UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics

0

900000

1800000

2700000

3600000

4500000

5400000

6300000

7200000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Millions of dollarsFLOW: Exports

COUNTRY_GROUP: World

Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002

YEAR

FLOW: ExportsCOUNTRY_GROUP: World

Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002

YEAR

WorldDeveloped co...Developing c...

FLOW: Exports

Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002

YEAR

FLOW: ExportsCOUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil

Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

30

1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002

YEAR

FLOW: ImportsCOUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil

Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports

0

900000

1800000

2700000

3600000

4500000

5400000

6300000

7200000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

YEAR

WorldDeveloped co...Developing c...

UNIT: Millions of dollarsFLOW: Exports

Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

YEAR

Developed co...Developing c...

UNIT: PercentageFLOW: Exports

Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports

0

900000

1800000

2700000

3600000

4500000

5400000

6300000

7200000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

YEAR

WorldDeveloping c... United St... European U... J apan

UNIT: Millions of dollarsFLOW: Exports

Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports

-350000

-280000

-210000

-140000

-70000

0

70000

140000

210000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

YEAR

Developed co...Developing c...

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-560000

-480000

-400000

-320000

-240000

-160000

-80000

0

80000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: United States

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-120000

-80000

-40000

0

40000

80000

120000

160000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: European Union

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Japan

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries: America

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-75000

-50000

-25000

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Other Asia

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-27000

-18000

-9000

0

9000

18000

27000

36000

45000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

YEAR

China, H... China, Ta... Korea, R... Singapore

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-21000

-14000

-7000

0

7000

14000

21000

28000

35000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

YEAR

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-18000

-9000

0

9000

18000

27000

36000

45000

54000

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

YEAR

China India

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

-28000

-21000

-14000

-7000

0

7000

14000

21000

28000

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

YEAR

UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries: Africa

Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

YEAR

INDICATOR: FDI inflows (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: World

Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

YEAR

INDICATOR: FDI inflows (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil

Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

YEAR

INDICATOR: Inflows as a percentage of GFCFCOUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil

Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

YEAR

FDI inflows (mi...FDI outflows (...

COUNTRY_GROUP: Developed countries

Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks

0

40000

80000

120000

160000

200000

240000

280000

1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

YEAR

FDI inflows (mi...FDI outflows (...

COUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries

Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks

Commodities• UNCTAD's analysis of newly released commodity price statistics

suggests that 2005 was a pivotal year for commodity prices. There has been an upward trend since 2002 due to increasing demand - mainly in China and India - and to speculation on commodity markets.

• In 2005, the UNCTAD commodity index expressed in current US dollars was roughly 12% higher than in 2004, mainly as a result of price hikes in the metal and mineral sectors (+26%).

• There are now signs that this increase might be losing pace owing to slower economic growth, the withdrawal of speculative hedge funds and changes in stocking strategies, in particular for metals.

• Real dollar prices over the long term: overall commodity prices about one-third lower than the average for 1975-1985.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

YEAR (1995=100)

INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY_GROUP: Developed countries

Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

YEAR (1995=100)

INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries

Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

YEAR (1995=100)

INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY_GROUP: South America

Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

YEAR (1995=100)

Unit value indi...Volume indice...

COUNTRY_GROUP: South America

Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

YEAR (1995=100)

INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY OR AREA: Brazil

Table: T81.IVT - 8.1 Tentative terms of trade estimates for developing countries (1995=100)

Trends in trade flows and tariffs• Several trends relating to trade and market access conditions

involving developing countries and LDCs could be highlighted. During 1990-2004, the nominal value of exports from developing countries increased more than fivefold. As to LDCs' exports, their nominal value increased by almost 260% over the same period.

• Trade among developing countries has equally intensified substantially since the 1990s. In 1990, imports from developing countries directed to developed countries were more than four times those directed to other developing countries. This figure fell to a mere one and a half in 2004. The same trend is also observed for LDCs.

• The analysis of the composition of manufactures reveals that the share of high-skill manufactures has almost doubled for developing countries as a whole (from 16.8 % to 32.7%), while it has decreased by one third for LDCs alone (from 3% to 2%).

Trends in trade flows and tariffs

• Participation of many developing countries in dynamic and new sectors of world trade is acting as both a driver and an outcome of the changing geography of international trade.

• Developing countries currently account for 30 per cent export share of the 20 most dynamic merchandise product groups.

Trends in trade flows and tariffs

• Participation of many developing countries in dynamic and new sectors of world trade is acting as both a driver and an outcome of the changing geography of international trade.

• Developing countries currently account for 30 per cent export share of the 20 most dynamic merchandise product groups.

Trends in trade flows and tariffs

• In general, the level of protection for goods coming from developing countries face lower average weighted tariffs in developed countries markets than in developing countries markets, although developing countries and LDCs face higher tariffs in developed countries than in trade among developed countries themselves. The latter phenomenon is known as a "tariff bias" against developing countries.

• However, a general downward tendency in such protection is also observed. The major exception is textiles and clothing products, and footwear.

Trends in trade flows and tariffs

• Tariff peaks and tariff escalation remain important concerns for developing countries that require consideration and negotiating solutions, particularly in the Doha Round, when assessing potential development gains from trade.

Trends in trade flows and tariffs

• Non-Tariff Barriers of concern to developing countries can be summarized as follows. – First, in their access and entry to developed countries’ markets,

technical measures and price control measures are the most typical concerns for developing countries.

– Second, in trade between developing countries, customs and administrative entry procedures, para-tariff measures (e.g. import surcharges and additional charges) and other regulatory measures affecting, for example, infrastructure, protection of intellectual property rights and institutions are among trade obstacles.

– Third, products of export interest to developing countries, such as fisheries products, electrical equipment, pharmaceutical and textiles are more affected by NTBs than other sectors.