Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros
diretosUma introdução quantitativa baseada
no International Trade Statistics (WTO) e UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics
0
900000
1800000
2700000
3600000
4500000
5400000
6300000
7200000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Millions of dollarsFLOW: Exports
COUNTRY_GROUP: World
Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002
YEAR
FLOW: ExportsCOUNTRY_GROUP: World
Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002
YEAR
WorldDeveloped co...Developing c...
FLOW: Exports
Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002
YEAR
FLOW: ExportsCOUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil
Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30
1950-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002
YEAR
FLOW: ImportsCOUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil
Table: T12.IVT - 1.2 Growth rates of merchandise exports and imports
0
900000
1800000
2700000
3600000
4500000
5400000
6300000
7200000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
YEAR
WorldDeveloped co...Developing c...
UNIT: Millions of dollarsFLOW: Exports
Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
YEAR
Developed co...Developing c...
UNIT: PercentageFLOW: Exports
Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports
0
900000
1800000
2700000
3600000
4500000
5400000
6300000
7200000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
YEAR
WorldDeveloping c... United St... European U... J apan
UNIT: Millions of dollarsFLOW: Exports
Table: T11.IVT - 1.1 Value and shares of merchandise exports and imports
-350000
-280000
-210000
-140000
-70000
0
70000
140000
210000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
YEAR
Developed co...Developing c...
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-560000
-480000
-400000
-320000
-240000
-160000
-80000
0
80000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: United States
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-120000
-80000
-40000
0
40000
80000
120000
160000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: European Union
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Japan
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries: America
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-75000
-50000
-25000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Other Asia
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-27000
-18000
-9000
0
9000
18000
27000
36000
45000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
YEAR
China, H... China, Ta... Korea, R... Singapore
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-21000
-14000
-7000
0
7000
14000
21000
28000
35000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
YEAR
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-18000
-9000
0
9000
18000
27000
36000
45000
54000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
YEAR
China India
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
-28000
-21000
-14000
-7000
0
7000
14000
21000
28000
1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
YEAR
UNIT: Trade balance (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries: Africa
Table: T13.IVT - 1.3 Value of trade balance
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
YEAR
INDICATOR: FDI inflows (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: World
Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
YEAR
INDICATOR: FDI inflows (millions of dollars)COUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil
Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
YEAR
INDICATOR: Inflows as a percentage of GFCFCOUNTRY_GROUP: Brazil
Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
YEAR
FDI inflows (mi...FDI outflows (...
COUNTRY_GROUP: Developed countries
Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks
0
40000
80000
120000
160000
200000
240000
280000
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
YEAR
FDI inflows (mi...FDI outflows (...
COUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries
Table: T62.IVT - 6.2 Foreign direct investment: inward and outward flows and stocks
Commodities• UNCTAD's analysis of newly released commodity price statistics
suggests that 2005 was a pivotal year for commodity prices. There has been an upward trend since 2002 due to increasing demand - mainly in China and India - and to speculation on commodity markets.
• In 2005, the UNCTAD commodity index expressed in current US dollars was roughly 12% higher than in 2004, mainly as a result of price hikes in the metal and mineral sectors (+26%).
• There are now signs that this increase might be losing pace owing to slower economic growth, the withdrawal of speculative hedge funds and changes in stocking strategies, in particular for metals.
• Real dollar prices over the long term: overall commodity prices about one-third lower than the average for 1975-1985.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
YEAR (1995=100)
INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY_GROUP: Developed countries
Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
YEAR (1995=100)
INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY_GROUP: Developing countries
Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
YEAR (1995=100)
INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY_GROUP: South America
Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
YEAR (1995=100)
Unit value indi...Volume indice...
COUNTRY_GROUP: South America
Table: T21.IVT - 2.1 Volume, unit value and terms of trade indices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
YEAR (1995=100)
INDICATOR: Terms of tradeCOUNTRY OR AREA: Brazil
Table: T81.IVT - 8.1 Tentative terms of trade estimates for developing countries (1995=100)
Trends in trade flows and tariffs• Several trends relating to trade and market access conditions
involving developing countries and LDCs could be highlighted. During 1990-2004, the nominal value of exports from developing countries increased more than fivefold. As to LDCs' exports, their nominal value increased by almost 260% over the same period.
• Trade among developing countries has equally intensified substantially since the 1990s. In 1990, imports from developing countries directed to developed countries were more than four times those directed to other developing countries. This figure fell to a mere one and a half in 2004. The same trend is also observed for LDCs.
• The analysis of the composition of manufactures reveals that the share of high-skill manufactures has almost doubled for developing countries as a whole (from 16.8 % to 32.7%), while it has decreased by one third for LDCs alone (from 3% to 2%).
Trends in trade flows and tariffs
• Participation of many developing countries in dynamic and new sectors of world trade is acting as both a driver and an outcome of the changing geography of international trade.
• Developing countries currently account for 30 per cent export share of the 20 most dynamic merchandise product groups.
Trends in trade flows and tariffs
• Participation of many developing countries in dynamic and new sectors of world trade is acting as both a driver and an outcome of the changing geography of international trade.
• Developing countries currently account for 30 per cent export share of the 20 most dynamic merchandise product groups.
Trends in trade flows and tariffs
• In general, the level of protection for goods coming from developing countries face lower average weighted tariffs in developed countries markets than in developing countries markets, although developing countries and LDCs face higher tariffs in developed countries than in trade among developed countries themselves. The latter phenomenon is known as a "tariff bias" against developing countries.
• However, a general downward tendency in such protection is also observed. The major exception is textiles and clothing products, and footwear.
Trends in trade flows and tariffs
• Tariff peaks and tariff escalation remain important concerns for developing countries that require consideration and negotiating solutions, particularly in the Doha Round, when assessing potential development gains from trade.
Trends in trade flows and tariffs
• Non-Tariff Barriers of concern to developing countries can be summarized as follows. – First, in their access and entry to developed countries’ markets,
technical measures and price control measures are the most typical concerns for developing countries.
– Second, in trade between developing countries, customs and administrative entry procedures, para-tariff measures (e.g. import surcharges and additional charges) and other regulatory measures affecting, for example, infrastructure, protection of intellectual property rights and institutions are among trade obstacles.
– Third, products of export interest to developing countries, such as fisheries products, electrical equipment, pharmaceutical and textiles are more affected by NTBs than other sectors.