Post on 31-Jan-2018
1
Santander 7th Annual Brazil ConferenceCampos do Jordão, Brazil, August 21-22th, 2006
Second Quarter 2006 Launches
Belle Vue – Porto Alegre Paço das Águas – São Paulo Vistta Ibirapuera – São Paulo Beach Park Living - Fortaleza
Blue Land – Rio de Janeiro
2
We make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of our management, and on information currently available to us. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations or that of our directors or executive officers.
Forward-looking statements also include information concerning our possible or assumed future results of operations, as well as statements preceded by, followed by, or that include the words ''believes,'' ''may,'' ''will,'' ''continues,'' ''expects,'‘ ''anticipates,'' ''intends,'' ''plans,'' ''estimates'' or similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Our future results and shareholder values may differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by these forward-looking statements. Many of the factors that will determine these results and values are beyond our ability to control or predict.
“Safe-Harbor” Statement
3
Agenda
2Q06 Update 3
What’s Going On the Brazilian Housing Industry? 15
Page
Why Gafisa is Better Prepared to Take Advantage of This Market? 20
Appendix 34
4
2Q06: Gafisa Reports 151% Growth in Launches and 168% in Pre-Sales
39
15412
58
35
16
2Q05 2Q06
New MarketsRio de JaneiroSão Paulo
44
134
11
46
54
94
2Q05 2Q06
New MarketsRio de JaneiroSao Paulo
Pre-Sales (R$ mm)
Pre-sales mix breakdown – 2Q06
Launches (R$ mm)
HIG – High Income: > 3,600 MHI – Middle High: 2,800 < > 3,600MID – Middle Income: 2,000 < > 2,800 AEL – Affordable entry level: 1,800 < > 2,000 COM – Commercial LOT – Urbanized lots
Segmentation (Prices in R$/sq.m)
274
109 85
229
168%168%
22%
47%
22% HIG
MHI
MID
AEL
LOT
COM
151%151%
69%
5
2,8
21,1
14%
3%
2Q05 2Q06
Adj. Net Income Net Margin
2Q06: Operating Highlights
33,2
39,5
32%26%
2Q05 2Q06Gross Profit Gross Margin
15,319,1
13%15%
2Q05 2Q06
Adj. EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Net Revenues (R$ mm) Gross Profit (R$ mm)
Adj. EBITDA (R$ mm) (1) Adj. Net Income (R$ mm) (1)
103,4
152,5
2Q05 2Q06Net Revenues
48%48% 19%19%
25%25%
661%661%
(1) Adjusted EBITDA /Net Income – Excluding IPO expenses
6
15
4251
2027
9
34
12%12%
4%6%
4%
12%
8%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1H05 1H06¹
Adj. Net Income Net Margin
Operating Highlights
67
114142
124 139
68 75
32%
26%28%
27%
32%34%
34%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1H05 1H06
Gross Profit Gross Margin
26
64
8466 65
36 38
19% 19%
14% 13%
17%
14%13%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1H05 1H06¹
Adj. EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Net Revenues (R$ mm) Gross Profit (R$ mm)
EBITDA (R$ mm) Net Income (R$ mm)
197
334440 436
494
212285
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1H05 1H06
34%
9.6%
8%
279%
¹ Adjusted EBITDA ¹ Adjusted Net Income
7
Gafisa is now well positioned for the Future
Despite the strong results in pre-sales, Gafisa is still being impacted by the external events of 2004…
► 1997: GP invests, professionalizationof company begins
► 1954 - Gafisa is founded
Timeline
46
81
149
293
333 325
254
451
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Largest Real Estate Developer► Market Leadership► High Growth Rates
Turnaround Building Value
IPO
► New Management► Capital Restructuring
► Leadership Position► Pure National Player
1997
Pre-Sales (R$ mm)
► GP InvestimentosAcquires Control
2005:► EIP acquires
36% of Gafisa
2004: ► Company
becomes capital constrained, external shareholder event occurs
8
2Q06 Pre-sales x Recognized Revenues (R$000)
… as We Are Recognizing Previous Years Revenues following the PoC Method
Launched in 2006
Launched in 2005
Launched in 2004
Launched in 2003
Launched in 2002
Others
Developments Pre-Sales
143,699
48,347
16,557
13,832
6,436
na
% of Pre-Sales
63%
21%
7%
6%
3%
na
16,042
44,542
33,951
36,963
8,240
12,809
Revenues % of Revenues
11%
29%
22%
24%
5%
8%
152,547 100%Total
84%
59%
228,870 100%
9
Income Statement doesn’t necessarily reflect the economics of the Sector
Earnings recognition per year
11% 48% 42%
Accumulated earnings recognized (a x b) 11% 59% 100%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Historically, almost 90% of a year’s earnings are based on previous’ years launches
However, earnings “lag” provides strong predictability
Earnings are recognized under the percentage of completion method
Accumulated Sales (a)
Percentage of completion (b)
70% 90% 100%
15% 65% 100%
10
Strong Pre-sales performance will positively impact future earnings
… with margins record high margins of 43.3%
Currently, Gafisa has approximately R$243 million of results to be recognized (a 91% growth compared to 2Q05)…
2Q05(a)
1Q06(b)
Revenues and Results be Recognized (R$ mm) Backlog Margin (%)(2)
Sales to be Recognized
Costs of Units Soldto be Recognized 1
Results to beRecognized
Margin to beRecognized
473,4
(278,9)
194,5
41.1%
383,2
126,9
33.1%
Note:1 Includes only land and construction costs2 Backlog Margin is not equal to Gross Margin
(256,3)
2Q06 (c)
560,7
(317,8)
242,8
43.3%
(c)/(b)%
18%
14%
25%
(c)/(a)%
46%
24%
91%
43.3%41.1%
33.1%
2Q05 1Q06 2Q06
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Predicting the Housing Market
Following the Housing Sector more closely
MA
CRO
► Gives a color on the
main pillars that
support companies
growth strategy.
► Micro Overview
– Provides an
indication of the
potential demand
for new homes.
ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHICPopulation TrendsEmployment Rate
Interest RatesHousehold Growth
Real IncomeCost of Living
Taxes
MIC
RO
SECTORIAL DATAMortgage AvailabilityHomeownership (%)
Housing Starts/PermitsBarriers to entry
Natural Barriers to GrowAdemi / Secovi Sales Speed
COMPANY WISELeading Indicators
► Provides an indication
of the potential
demand for new
homes.
12
Why it is important?Indicator
Is it going up or down?How does Backlog Margin translate to Gross Margin?
Potential revenue growth to be recognized in future periods
Are launches being effective?How is receptivity of products in the marketPre-sales from recent launches or from old inventory?
Potential growth of Pre-sales?Current mix of products is aligned with company’s strategy?Concentration or diversification in geographical terms?
Backlog Margin to be recognized
Sales to be recognized
Pre-Sales
Launches
The PoC Method provides Strong Predictability of Earnings
Predictors Guide – Monitoring Sector Leading Performance Indicators
aaaa
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Strong Financial Position…
Short Term DebtLong Term Debt Total Debt
Cash and Cash Equivalents Net Debt (Net Cash)Shareholder’s Equity
Total Capitalization
(R$ million) 2Q06
85191276
423(147)806
1,082
1Q06
86199285
481(196)788
1,073
…coupled with focus on working capital management
Net Debt/ Equity -18% -25%
2Q05
38102140
11921321
461
7%
In order to optimize its working capital, Gafisa has been demanding new product from banks:
Gafisa and Banco HSBC offer pre-approved mortgage in Santo Andre (Sao Paulo)
Gafisa and Banco Santander Banespa Launches No-paperwork mortgage in Rio de Janeiro
Gafisa and Banco Santander Banespa offer mortgage with discount on rent during construction period
More recently, Gafisa’s Board approved a R$100 million securitization of Receivables from clients
14
Our Goals for 2006
► Launching growth guidance for 2006 of 25-28% in nominal currency terms
► EBITDA margin for FY06 of 16-17% (as % of Net Revenues)
Continued Growth Pace
Margin Expansion
15
Agenda
2Q06 Update 3
What’s Going On the Brazilian Housing Industry? 15
Page
Why Gafisa is Better Prepared to Take Advantage of This Market? 20
Appendix 34
16
Brazil’s housing market presents large and sustainable demand…
Robust Growth Prospects in Brazil and the Favorable Demographics Make It Difficult to Ignore Its Potential
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
5-9
15-19
25-29
35-39
45-49
55-59
65-69
75-79
► Largest economy in South America
► Politically stable and fiscally conservative
► Strong economic fundamentals
– Unemployment rate: declining
– Interest rates: declining
– Country risk at historical lows
Favorable Housing Market TrendsBrazil’s Economic Trends
► Attractive demographics: young and growing
population
► Strong pent-up demand:
– Housing deficit currently grows at a pace
of 300,000 units per year
…which is expected to continue significantly exceeding supplySource: Central Bank and Focus (Market Estimates)
0 2 4 6 8 10Source: IBGE
Brazil Demographic Pyramid - 2005
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
out02
fev03
jun03
out03
fev04
jun04
out04
fev05
jun05
out05
fev06
jun06
out06
fev07
Interest Rates (Selic) - Historical and Forward
17
2,2 3,04,8
10,0
2,04,1
4,5
6,0
9,1
10,3
2,9
5,3
2003 2004 2005 2006E 1H05 1H06
Mortgage by Commercial Banks¹ CEF Mortgage Loans
► 2006 - Bradesco plans to triple mortgage lending activity this year to nearly R$2 billion.
► Itaú launches 15-yr fixed mortgage rate (18.85%p.a.)
► CEF comes back to middle income market (10.9%p.a.)
► Santander launches 20-yr fixed mortgage rate (16.9%p.a.)
► Gafisa, HSBC and Santander offer pre-approved mortgages
► Central Bank may allow paycheck discount for mortgage lending
Commercial banks are coming to fuel the housing sector
R$ billion
Sources: ABECIP, Central Bank. ¹ Total mortgage lending using savings deposits funding (channeled-lending requirement).
104%
83%
13%
109%
20,3
13,9
9,0
6,7
4,9
9,4
Timeline - Recent Developments in the Housing Sector► 2005 - Individuals gets Tax
exempted on MBS Investments
► ABN Amro, Santander and HSBC reduce Mortgage Rates to 8%p.y from 12%p.a.
► Itaú, Bradesco, Unibancofollow suit
► Santander launches 10-yr fixed mortgage rate (21%p.a.)
► 2003 - Central Bank increases bank requirement to invest in the sector
► 2004 -Resolution 10.931 Improves Foreclosure regulation
Increasing credit availability and new regulation will support the potential of the sector
18
The Development of the Mortgage Market will Directly Impact Housing Affordability…
…with banks taking the position as main providers of financing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2004 2005 1TRI06 2TRI06
High Income Mid-High Middle
9,232
2,308
6
12% p.a.120,000
80,000
60%
200,000
Current Financing provided by Homebuilders
5,5835,573Required Monthly Household Income (R$)
1,3961,393Monthly Installment (R$)
2315Tenor (years)
8% p.a.12% p.a.Real Interest Rates
180,000120,000Mortgage Financing
20,00080,000Down Payment (R$)
90%60%Loan-to Value – LTV (%)
200,000200,000Unit Price (R$)
Expected Mid-Term Mortgage Scenario (banks)
Current SFH Mortgage (banks)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2004 2005 1TRI06 2TRI06
High Income Mid-High Middle
Gafisa’s Mortgage Penetration (Sao Paulo) Gafisa’s Mortgage Penetration (Rio de Janeiro)
% Mortgage / Total Pre-sales % Mortgage / Total Pre-sales
19
High Fragmentation is also an opportunity
Market Share in São Paulo (2005)
Well capitalized companies will benefitfrom increasing demand
Market Share in Rio de Janeiro (2005)
Source: EMBRAESP and SECOVI
Others80%
5%
Cyrela Brazil Realty8%
Rossi Residencial2%
Company S.A.3%
Tecnisa2%
Source: ADEMI
Others42%
CHL9%
Carmo Calçada11%
Agenco13%
RJZ Cyrela12%
13%
Units (#)
Launchings (R$ bi)
2005 04-05Growth
33,748
9.0 19%
24% Units (#)
Launchings (R$ bi)
2005 04-05Growth
8,832
3.0 2%
23%
Gafisa´s strong brand and market positioning are a competitive advantage against the many family-owned and non-professional competitors
20
Agenda
2Q06 Update 3
What’s Going On the Brazilian Housing Industry? 15
Page
Why Gafisa is Better Prepared to Take Advantage of This Market? 20
Appendix 34
21
Well Defined Strategy
Create the leading residential development company in Brazil based upon sales, profitability and quality
Strong revenue growth
Focus on high return
opportunities
Maintain debt policy of
40% - 60% net debt / equity
Continued geographic expansion
Our Strategy
Maintain land bank of
2-3 years of future sales
22
Gafisa: Premier Growth Opportunity
Professional Managementand
Established Organization
Industry Leadership and Strong Brand Recognition
GeographicDiversification
World-class Shareholdersand the Highest Standards of Corporate Governance
23
Led by GP and EI, Gafisa is the only homebuilder with an institutional shareholder base …
World-Class Shareholders and Corporate Governance
… and commitment to superior corporate governance standards
27.4%21.8%
Free Float
50.8%
Current Shareholder Structure 1
► Proven track record in the Brazilian capital markets
– Submarino, ALL, Cemar, among others
► A leading investor in real estate companies outside of the U.S.
► Portfolio includes Homex, Mexico’s leading homebuilder
► Founded by Sam Zell
► Novo Mercado listing
► 100% tag along rights
► US GAAP
► 2 independent board
members
► Audit Committee
Superior Governance Standards
Note:1 Excludes treasury stocks
24
A Diverse Product Mix Positions Gafisa to Take Advantage of Positive Environment
100 to 400100 to 500150 to 300up to 100# of Units
28%
2%
R$ 1,800 to R$ 2,000
100% CEF (directly to buyer)
R$ 32,000 to R$ 62,000
R$ 70k to 130K
45 to 65 sq.m
Affordable Entry Level Land SubdivisionMiddle and Mid-HighHigh-End
31%
62%
R$ 2,000 to R$ 3,600
Commercial Banks and CEF
R$ 70,000 to R$150,000
R$ 150k to 400K
70 to 150 sq.m
10%19%% of 2006 Launches²
44%
R$ 150 to R$ 800
Provided by Gafisa
Diverse
Up to 300k
100 to 1,000 sq.m
37%
Above R$3,600
Provided by Gafisa
Above R$150,000
Above 400K
100 to 500 sq.m
Typical Project Margin
Average Price sq.m
Financing
Household Income¹
Price Range
Size
Notes:¹ Annual household income. ² Gafisa has commercial buildings which accounted for the remaining 7% of the 2006 Launches
Lorian - SPBlue -RJ Side Park - SPThe Gold-SP
Gafisaeographical expansion offers further growth potential in the medium term
25
► Main Characteristics:3% of Brazilian population 5% of Brazilian GDPOne of the highest GDP per capita in Brazil (38% higher than Brazilian average)Around 2 million homes (~ 4% of Brazil`s total)Market Size in 2005: R$3 billion
► Growth Opportunities:Projects oriented to middle and high-income in Barra da Tijuca and Jacarepaguá, fastest-growing region in the city (70% of Rio’s market)Diversifying around suburban areas of Rio de Janeiro State
► Main Characteristics:6% of Brazilian population10% of Brazilian GDP One of the highest GDP per capita in Brazil (72% higher than Brazilian average)Over 4 million homes (~ 8% of Brazil's Total)Market Size in 2005: R$9 billion
► Growth Opportunities:Projects targeted to the middle income bracketDespite the lower demand for luxury housing, there are several opportunities for innovative and differentiated projectsHuge unmet demand for Low Income projects due to lack of a regulatory framework
Gafisa has a Leadership Position in Brazil’s Main Markets
Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro
Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro represent, respectively, 36% and 32% of Gafisa’s Launchings
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► Why expand through JVs with local partners?Develop local partnerships to leverage regional market knowledge, legal skills, risk mitigation and entry barriers
► Growth Opportunities Multiple drivers of other markets mitigate growth riskSmall and poorly capitalized competitorsBetter marginsBusiness Owners Organizational Structure provide a totally focused local management integrated and supported by Gafisa Corporate Unit in Sao Paulo
Present in 12 states, Gafisa is one of the most geographically diverse builders in Brazil
Although SP and RJ are still core markets, “New Markets”already represents 32% of Gafisa’s Launches
Recently signed partnerships
► How Gafisa is differentiated in “New Markets”?Strength of its brand and its track record in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro
Innovative project concepts
Differentiated project designs
Delivery of products on time and demand-aligned payment conditions
Aggressive marketing strategy
Geographical expansion offers further growth potential in the medium term
North • Rapidly Expanding Export Platform• Brazil’s New Agricultural Frontier
Mid-west• High Dependant on the Agricultural Business South
• Nation’s Highest Income Per Capita
Northeast• Second Home, Foreign Investments
Gafisa’s National Reach Drivers of Growth
27
A superior organizational structure and professional management yield results …
Professional Management and Superior Organizational Structure
… and make Gafisa a scalable business platform
A unique business model in the industry oriented towards maximizing shareholder profitability
Gafisa People and its culture
Professional, experienced and motivated management focused on value creation
Committed to develop leaders
4 out of 7 directors joined the company as
interns
Results driven culture
40% to 60% of compensation
linked to aggressive
targets
In depth industry
knowledge
Management, on average, with more than 14
years of experience
Ownership Culture
More than 25 managers hold
3.6% of the company
28
Efficient and Scalable Organizational Structure Designed to Sustain Growth
SeniorManagement
Regional Regional
Operations(Construction)
Sales Performance
Geography
Tasks
Operation Operation Operation Operation Operation Operation… …
…
…
IT
Finance
…
…
Human Resources …
Better execution, goals, standardization, best
practices
Goals definitions, Performance
management, best practices,
standardization, economies of scale
Back-office …
Gafisa’s Business Owner Structure is Unique on the Sector
29
An efficient business model, based on three main pillars…
Efficient Business Model
… oriented towards maximizing shareholder profitability (ROE)
ROE
High Asset Turn OverHigh sales velocity: 70% of
units sold before constructionSecuritize client receivables to
optimize working capital
Low CostOperations
Builds for some of Gafisa´s main competitorsStandardized construction techniquesInnovative materials and techniques
Land AcquisitionProven ability to source landAcquire land mostly via swap
Minimize cash outflowAlignment with landowner
30
Land Bank representing 2-3 years of future sales
Potential Units by Income Segment
Strategic Land Bank
São Paulo
Rio deJaneiro
OtherCities
Total
%
Land Bank
846
604
638
2,089
Future Sales(R$ mm)
67%
90%
92%
84%
%acquiredby swapHigh Middle Lots &
Com
336
1,032
444
1,812
23%
2,118
1,080
2,115
5,313
68%
8
418
270
696
9%
AEL
-
-
-
-
0%
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
31
Even in cities like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Land is far from Scarce
A Land bank representing 2-3 years of future sales is enough to sustain our strong growth rates
Verdes Pracas - SP
32
“Gafisa” has a very strong appeal to the buyers, with a direct link to its Real Estate products
Size and Strong Brand Matters in this Sector
Gafisa’s brand is one of the best-known in the Brazilian homebuilding industry
Palazzo Farnese - SP
Strong brand and track record enables it to enter into swap agreements, paying for the land with units of the future development
“Safe hands” appeal to the buyers results higher in pre-sales velocity compared to smaller players
First look at land and partnership deals
Product and geographic diversity
Strong balance sheets
Scale to leverage processes and supply agreements
Expertise to underwrite, control and process land
Attract and retain high talent work force
Greater relative investment in technology
33
Gafisa: Premier Growth Opportunity
Professional Managementand
Established Organization
Industry Leadership and Strong Brand Recognition
GeographicDiversification
World-class Shareholdersand the Highest Standards of Corporate Governance
34
Agenda
2Q06 Update 3
What’s Going On the Brazilian Housing Industry? 15
Page
Why Gafisa is Better Prepared to Take Advantage of This Market? 20
Appendix 34
35
► Market research
► Project analysis
► Sales strategy
► Internal approvals
► Permitting
► Market research
► Project analysis
► Sales strategy
► Internal approvals
► Permitting
► Sales: 70% of units
► Secure client financing
► Sales: 70% of units
► Secure client financing
► Sales: 30% of units
► Secure construction financing
► Efficient construction
► Sales: 30% of units
► Secure construction financing
► Efficient construction
► Securitization
► Bank mortgage (customer)
► Securitization
► Bank mortgage (customer)
Development Process
LandPurchase Launch Construction Delivery
- 6th to 0 month 0 to 12th month 12th to 36th month After 36th month
36
The nature of the business requires funding for the first year of development…
LandPurchase Launching Construction Delivery
Notes:1 Construction financing provided with funds from SFH2 Middle-income with swap agreement project
Cumulative Cash Flow to Equity 1, 2
… followed by significant cash in-flows
► Beginning of construction
► Project launching
► Securitization of remaining receivables
► End of construction► Customer gets
commercial mortgage financing
► Construction Finance (SFH) repayment
Expected ROIC = 35%
-6 – 0months
0 – 12months
12 – 36months
36 +months
Maximum exposure: 10% to
12% of sales contracted
(15)
(5)
5
15
R$
milli
on
Typical Project Cash Flow