Decision making in exponential times

Jesper Rhode (@jesperrhode)

A revolução digital e organizações exponenciais

Ericsson Internal | 2015-10-06 | Page 2

Ericsson Internal | 2015-10-06 | Page 3 1 2

30 steps 30 meters

30 exponential steps 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-518-1024-2048-4196-

1.073.741.824 meters

Kodak signing out

Market Cap: $28bn

Employees: 140.000

Market Cap: $0,1bn

Employees: 17.000

Market Cap: $1bn

Employees: 13

Kodak signing out

Deceptive

Desruptive

The hunt for growth

Source: Robin Hanson

Ericsson Internal | 2015-10-06 | Page 13 Source:http://www.ourworldindata.org/

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

PLACES

PEOPLE

THINGS

Exponential development Life expectancy

1 1800 2010

›More’s Law ›Genetics ›Neuro Science ›Nano Mechanics

As dimensões de exponenciais

Narrative Science

Animated GIF

The cost of genetics (sequncing)

1984 - 2003 $ 3bn

Outrunning More’s law

Timing of your offering

Development

Launch

Growth rates of modern science, Lutz Bornmann, Rüdiger Mutz, 2014

http://www.healthcare.uiowa.edu/2020/

Interfaces

Dashboards

Experimentation

Autonomy

Social

Staff on demand

Community & Crowd

Algorithms

Leveraged assets

Engagement

Order, Control, Stability Creativity, Growth, Uncertainty

Exponantial Organizations - ExO

Business reposition

Platforms in the S&P 500

Platform evolution

The value of data

https://thedma.org/advocacy/data-driven-marketing-institute/value-of-data/

A System of Systems

Sensors / Data Services

Fuel Speed

Fuel consumption Tire pressure

Temperature

Moisture Soil data

Meteo data

Steering

Oil Distance

Traction

Crop condition

Harvest data

GPS position

Operation efficiency

Preventive maintenance

Cost per performance

Autonomous driving

Soil analysis

Fuel efficiency Harvesting

Automated Field preparation

A System of Systems Weather

Machinery Crops

- Yield per m2

- Profitability

- Climate fitting

- Optimization of consumables

- Crops vs Soil optimization

- Feed-back to crops development

- Total irrigation management

Total Result oriented services

Monetization

The business model evolution

Competitive basis

Maintenance

Partnerships

Product Product-Service

Service Service-Result

Result

Usage based

Pay and use

Transaction- based

Feature and Price

One and done

Break and fix

Single business

Result based

Business model

Share in results

Included

Network of businesses

Constructing a business logic

Information

Model / APP

Analytics

Database External Data IoT Products Biz systems Sensors

Exponential Organizations

15 opportunities for 5 risks

www.globalopportunitynetwork.org

that describes something

Douglas Adams

Excellence of customer relationship in the networked society

We talk about our products We talk about our values Our customers talk about our values Our customer create our products with us

Excellence of customer relationship in the networked society

Decision making in exponential times

Technology

Transcript of Decision making in exponential times

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